New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction & Picks 5/19/2024

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 19, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Manaea - Mets
  • Sixto Sanchez - Marlins

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

In a National League East matchup, the Miami Marlins will take on the New York Mets on May 19, 2024, at LoanDepot Park. As the home team, the Marlins will look to turn their struggling season around against the Mets, who have also been facing challenges this year.

The Marlins currently hold a record of 15-32, which reflects their difficult season. However, their offense has shown some promise, ranking third in team batting average in MLB. They will rely on their best hitter, who has played in several games and recorded impressive stats over the past week. The Marlins' offense ranks 29th in MLB overall, a statistic that should be considered when assessing their performance.

On the other hand, the Mets have a record of 20-25 this season, indicating a less-than-ideal performance. Their offense ranks 24th in team batting average in MLB and 11th in team home runs, suggesting an average level of power. J.D. Martinez has emerged as their best hitter in recent games, making significant contributions to the team's performance.

On the mound, the Marlins are projected to start Sixto Sanchez, a right-handed pitcher. Sanchez has had a challenging season, with a 0-1 win/loss record and an ERA of 5.96. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better in the future. Sanchez is known as a low-strikeout pitcher, which could pose a challenge against the Mets' offense, which has the fourth least strikeouts in MLB.

The Mets will counter with left-handed pitcher Sean Manaea. Manaea has had a more favorable season, with a 2-1 win/loss record and an ERA of 3.05. However, his xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse going forward. Manaea's high-flyball tendency might work in his favor against the Marlins' offense, which has shown little power this season.

Based on current odds, the Marlins are considered underdogs with an implied win probability of 43%. The Mets, with an implied win probability of 57%, are the betting favorites for this game.

Overall, both teams have faced challenges this season and will be looking for a win. The Marlins will rely on their offense to overcome their struggling record, while the Mets will leverage their pitching strengths against a Marlins offense that lacks power. With the odds slightly favoring the Mets, it will be an intriguing matchup to see if the Marlins can overcome the odds and turn their season around.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Sean Manaea will average a total of 1.8 singles in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Typically, bats like Starling Marte who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Sixto Sanchez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be smart to expect positive regression for the New York Mets offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 8th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Sixto Sanchez's high usage rate of his secondary pitches (64.5% since the start of last season) should work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Dane Myers is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Miami Marlins bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+10.50 Units / 41% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 away games (+5.50 Units / 35% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+10.35 Units / 25% ROI)

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.38 vs Miami Marlins 4.42

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