New York Mets VS Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick & Preview – 4/5/2024

New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Overview

• Date: April 5, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Quintana - Mets
  • Hunter Greene - Reds
• Run Line: Mets +1.5 (-192), Reds -1.5 (+160)
• Money Line: Mets +102, Reds -122
• Total (Over/Under): 9.0

New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• New York Mets - 49.5%
• Cincinnati Reds - 54.95%

Projected Win %:

• New York Mets - 48.39%
• Cincinnati Reds - 51.61%

New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Game Preview & Prediction

The Reds have been having a great season so far, with a record of 4-2. Their offense has been particularly impressive, ranking as the best in MLB and boasting a strong team batting average. They have also excelled in stolen bases, leading the league in this category. The Reds are projected to start Hunter Greene, a right-handed pitcher who is ranked as the 40th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Greene is known for his ability to strike out batters, averaging 7.2 strikeouts per game. However, he tends to allow a high number of hits and walks.

On the other hand, the Mets have had a challenging season with a record of 1-5. Their offense has struggled, ranking among the lowest in MLB. The Mets are projected to start Jose Quintana, who has been one of the worst pitchers in the league according to our Power Rankings. Quintana has struggled with his control, averaging 5.4 hits and 2.1 walks per game. However, he is expected to pitch an average of 5.5 innings and allow an average of 2.6 earned runs.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Reds rank 24th in MLB according to our Power Rankings, while the Mets rank 28th. This suggests that both teams may face challenges in the later innings.

Considering the Reds' strong offense, the struggles of the Mets, and the projected performances of Greene and Quintana, this game has the potential to favor the Reds. However, baseball is a game of surprises, and anything can happen on any given day.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Jose Quintana in the 21st percentile when estimating his strikeout ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

The New York Mets have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, D.J. Stewart).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Benson in the 13th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 69 of their last 113 games (+16.90 Units / 11% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 95 games (+14.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• Will Benson has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+6.45 Units / 45% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: New York Mets 4.25 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.16

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