New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals Pick & Prediction – 5/7/2024

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 7, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Butto - Mets
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals will face off against the New York Mets on May 7, 2024, at Busch Stadium. As the home team, the Cardinals will look to improve their record of 15-20 this season, which has been a struggle for them. On the other side, the Mets have had an average season so far with a record of 17-18.

Taking the mound for the Cardinals will be right-handed pitcher Miles Mikolas. While his overall numbers this season have been disappointing, our advanced-stat Power Rankings consider him to be one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB. However, his peripheral indicators, such as a lower xFIP compared to his ERA, suggest that he has been unlucky and could perform better going forward. In his seven starts this year, Mikolas has a 2-4 record with a 5.68 ERA.

Opposing Mikolas will be the Mets' right-handed pitcher Jose Butto. Butto has had a solid season so far, with a 2.57 ERA. However, our Power Rankings consider him to be one of the worst pitchers in MLB. His higher xFIP compared to his ERA indicates that he has been lucky and may not continue to perform at the same level. In his five starts this year, Butto has a 0-2 record.

In terms of offensive performance, the Cardinals have struggled this season, ranking as the 28th best team in MLB. However, they have shown some power, ranking 5th in team home runs. The Mets, on the other hand, have an average offense, ranking 17th in MLB. They excel in team batting average, ranking 24th, but have a solid showing in team home runs, ranking 11th.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Cardinals have the best bullpen in MLB according to our Power Rankings, while the Mets rank 16th. This could give the Cardinals an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Cardinals are favored to win with an implied win probability of 54%, while the Mets have an implied win probability of 46%. The game total is set at 8.0 runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Out of all starting pitchers, Jose Butto's fastball spin rate of 2374 rpm ranks in the 75th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

J.D. Martinez's 17.1% Barrel% (a reliable stat to measure power) is in the 99th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The New York Mets have done a favorable job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 13.9° angle is among the highest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season (#3 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Compared to the average hurler, Miles Mikolas has been granted an above-average leash since the start of last season, tallying an extra 5.7 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Lars Nootbaar has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen profiles as the best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+3.87 Units / 21% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
• Nolan Gorman has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.70 Units / 53% ROI)

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.5 vs St. Louis Cardinals 5.03

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