Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 4/28/2025

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on April 28, 2025, both teams are looking to establish momentum in this American League Central matchup. The Guardians currently sit in a solid position with a 15-12 record, while the Twins lag behind at 12-16, struggling to find consistency this season. This game marks the first in a series between these two rivals, adding an extra layer of intensity to the matchup.

Cleveland's Gavin Williams is projected to take the mound, coming off a solid season with a 2-1 record and an ERA of 4.15. Although his xERA of 5.29 suggests he might have had a bit of luck, he still projects to be an average starter, expected to pitch around 5.4 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs. In contrast, Bailey Ober of Minnesota has also started five games this year, holding a 2-1 record but struggling with a higher ERA of 5.04. Ober's projected performance indicates he may be due for a rebound, as his xFIP of 4.18 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky.

With the Guardians' strong bullpen, ranked 2nd overall, and the Twins' average bullpen at 11th, Cleveland looks to capitalize on their home advantage. The current moneyline favors the Guardians at -125, suggesting that the betting markets expect a close contest. As both teams vie for a crucial win, this matchup could be pivotal in shaping their seasons moving forward.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Bailey Ober's 90.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.6-mph decrease from last season's 91.7-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Harrison Bader has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 11.9% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Minnesota Twins have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (DaShawn Keirsey Jr., Byron Buxton, Edouard Julien).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Gavin Williams is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #21 HR venue in the majors in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Nolan Jones is apt to have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Cleveland Guardians bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+6.45 Units / 47% ROI)
• Kyle Manzardo has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.20 Units / 42% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.98, Cleveland Guardians 4.23

• Date: April 28, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Ober - Twins
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians

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