Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick & Preview – 5/18/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 18, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Ober - Twins
  • Logan Allen - Guardians

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians will be hosting the Minnesota Twins on May 18, 2024, at Progressive Field. As the home team, the Guardians will look to continue their impressive season with a record of 28-17. On the other hand, the Twins are having an above-average season with a record of 24-20.

The Guardians are projected to start left-handed pitcher Logan Allen, who has a 4-2 win/loss record this season. Despite his high ERA of 5.56, which may seem concerning, his 4.44 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. In contrast, the Twins are projected to start right-handed pitcher Bailey Ober, who has a solid 4-1 win/loss record and a 3.77 ERA. His peripheral indicators, such as his 3.24 SIERA and 3.16 FIP, suggest that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better in upcoming games.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Guardians rank 15th in MLB, while the Twins rank 14th. However, the Guardians have struggled with home runs, ranking 30th in the league, but have excelled in stolen bases, ranking 7th. On the other hand, the Twins have shown power with their offense, ranking 7th in home runs, but have struggled with stolen bases, ranking 24th.

The Guardians' best hitter this season has been David Fry, who has shown exceptional performance over the last 7 games. In the same period, Carlos Santana has been the Twins' standout hitter.

Logan Allen, being a low-strikeout pitcher, could potentially benefit from facing the high-strikeout Twins offense. On the other hand, Bailey Ober, a high-strikeout pitcher, may face challenges against the low-strikeout Guardians offense. Additionally, Ober's high-flyball tendencies could pose a threat to the Guardians, who have struggled with power-hitting this season.

Based on the current odds, both teams have an equal implied win probability of 50%, indicating a close game. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects a 50% win probability for both teams, further emphasizing the competitiveness of this matchup.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Considering that flyball hitters are less effective against flyball pitchers, Bailey Ober (41.2% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 3 FB hitters in the opposing club's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Since the start of last season, Byron Buxton's 14.4% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 92nd percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Byron Buxton pulls many of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Logan Allen's cutter rate has increased by 9.7% from last year to this one (8.7% to 18.4%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Josh Naylor's speed has declined this season. His 25.8 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.67 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the Cleveland Guardians with a 19.3% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.45 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 22 away games (+4.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• Manuel Margot has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 away games (+7.25 Units / 81% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.28 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.05

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