Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians Best Bet – 5/17/2024

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 17, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Simeon Woods Richard - Twins
  • Triston McKenzie - Guardians

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

In a thrilling American League Central matchup, the Cleveland Guardians are set to take on the Minnesota Twins on May 17, 2024, at Progressive Field. The Guardians, with a season record of 27-17, are having a great season and hope to continue their success against the Twins, who hold a record of 24-19 and are having a good season themselves.

The Guardians will have home-field advantage as they showcase their talent in front of their loyal fans. They will be led by their projected starting pitcher, right-hander Triston McKenzie. McKenzie has started eight games this year, earning a 2-3 record with a solid 3.54 ERA. However, his 5.16 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

On the other side, the Twins will rely on right-hander Simeon Woods Richard to lead their pitching staff. Woods Richard has started five games this season, boasting a 1-0 record with an impressive 3.24 ERA. However, his 3.99 xFIP indicates that he may have benefited from some luck and could face challenges in upcoming outings.

The Guardians' offense has been performing well this season, ranking 15th in MLB. They have a balanced lineup, ranking 14th in team batting average and 7th in stolen bases. However, their power numbers have been lacking, ranking last in team home runs.

The Twins' offense, meanwhile, sits at 13th in MLB. They have shown some pop in their bats, ranking 7th in team home runs. However, their team batting average ranks 22nd, indicating room for improvement in their overall offensive performance.

In terms of pitching, both teams have strong bullpens. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Guardians rank 3rd in MLB, while the Twins rank 4th. This could make for an intriguing battle if the starting pitchers can hand the game over to their respective bullpens with a lead.

Based on projections from the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, the Guardians are favored to win this game, with a projected win probability of 56%. THE BAT X also projects the Guardians to score an average of 4.71 runs, while the Twins are expected to score 4.42 runs.

The betting markets see this game as a close matchup, with the Guardians holding a slight advantage. Their current moneyline is set at -120, implying a 52% chance of winning. The Twins, with a moneyline of +100, have a 48% implied win probability.

As we delve deeper into the statistical analysis, we find an interesting dynamic in play. McKenzie, a low-strikeout pitcher, will face a high-strikeout Twins offense that ranks first in MLB in strikeouts. This could play to McKenzie's advantage, as the Twins' weakness aligns with his strength.

Furthermore, Woods Richard, a high-flyball pitcher, will take on a Guardians offense that has struggled in the power department, ranking last in team home runs. This could give Woods Richard an advantage, as the Guardians may struggle to convert his flyballs into home runs.

It's important to note that baseball is a game of uncertainties, and anything can happen on any given day. The outcome of this game will depend on the performance of the players on the field, as well as the strategies employed by the managers.

As the Guardians and the Twins square off in this exciting matchup, fans and bettors alike will be eagerly watching to see which team will come out on top. With both teams having their strengths and weaknesses, it promises to be a closely contested battle on the diamond.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Because of his large reverse platoon split, Simeon Woods Richardson will hold the advantage facing 8 batters in the projected lineup of the opposite hand today.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Trevor Larnach's speed has declined this year. His 26.64 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.1 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Minnesota Twins have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, Edouard Julien).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Triston McKenzie’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2301 rpm) has been significantly better than than his seasonal rate (2223 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

In terms of his batting average, Tyler Freeman has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .221 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .300.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+5.60 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 24 games (+5.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• Carlos Santana has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 9 away games (+30.70 Units / 341% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.39 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.66

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