Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick – 4/27/2025

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals host the Milwaukee Brewers at Busch Stadium on April 27, 2025, both teams are looking to break out of underwhelming seasons. The Cardinals currently hold a record of 12-15, while the Brewers are slightly ahead at 13-15. Both teams are in need of a win to gain momentum after mediocre starts to their seasons.

Projected to start for the Cardinals is right-handed pitcher Erick Fedde, who has had an inconsistent season thus far, with a 1-2 record and an impressive ERA of 3.33. However, his xFIP of 5.63 suggests that he may not be as effective moving forward. Fedde's average projection shows him likely to pitch 5.5 innings while allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs, indicating a potential challenge against a lively Brewers offense ranked 17th in the league.

On the other side of the diamond, the Brewers will counter with left-hander Jose Quintana, who has dazzled this season with a perfect 3-0 record and a stellar 0.96 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.24 indicates that he may also be due for a regression. Quintana's ability to limit runs could be crucial, especially facing a Cardinals offense that boasts the 5th best lineup in MLB despite their low power ranking.

Despite the close odds reflected in the moneyline at -110 for both teams, the Cardinals' superior offensive metrics, including a 2nd rank in team batting average, combined with the projections that suggest a potential uptick in Fedde's performance, could see them emerge victorious in this competitive matchup. As the series progresses, this game serves as a pivotal moment for both teams to find their footing in a tightly contested division.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Bats such as Christian Yelich with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Erick Fedde who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Milwaukee has been the #30 group of hitters in Major League Baseball when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (11.4% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Erick Fedde has used his off-speed and breaking balls 7.6% less often this season (61.3%) than he did last year (68.9%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+8.00 Units / 47% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games (+10.00 Units / 36% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+6.60 Units / 73% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.34, St. Louis Cardinals 4.1

• Date: April 27, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Quintana - Brewers
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals

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