Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants Prediction & Picks – 9/10/2024

• Date: September 10, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Civale - Brewers
  • Hayden Birdsong - Giants

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

On September 10, 2024, the San Francisco Giants will host the Milwaukee Brewers in the first game of their series at Oracle Park, a matchup between two teams with contrasting seasons. The Giants, currently sitting at 71-73, are having an average year and are not in contention for a playoff spot. In their last game, they managed a narrow victory over the San Diego Padres with a score of 7-6, showcasing some offensive resilience. Meanwhile, the Brewers, with a strong record of 82-61, are enjoying a good season but are coming off a disappointing 4-1 loss to the Colorado Rockies.

Starting for the Giants is Hayden Birdsong, who has struggled this season with a Win/Loss record of 3-5 and an ERA of 5.19. His last outing was an abbreviated three-inning performance where he allowed two earned runs. Birdsong’s high walk rate of 15.0% could be problematic against a patient Brewers offense that ranks 2nd in MLB in walks. The projections suggest that he may allow 2.2 earned runs and 4.1 hits today, which could spell trouble for the Giants.

On the other side, the Brewers will counter with Aaron Civale, who has a more respectable ERA of 4.62 and has pitched 27 games this season. Civale's last game saw him go five innings with three earned runs, and he is projected to pitch 5.1 innings today. With the Brewers boasting the 10th best offense in MLB, they will look to capitalize on Birdsong’s control issues.

Despite the betting markets favoring the Brewers with a moneyline of -130, the leading MLB projection system sees the Giants with a 53% win probability, presenting an interesting opportunity for bettors. With the Giants’ bullpen ranked 1st in MLB, they could hold the advantage late in the game, making this matchup one worth watching closely.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Aaron Civale has utilized his cutter 6.5% less often this season (30.9%) than he did last season (37.4%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

William Contreras has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 99.3-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 92.7-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Milwaukee Brewers have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Blake Perkins, Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The San Francisco Giants outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best out of every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Mike Yastrzemski is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#1-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen ranks as the best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+6.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 133 games (+9.30 Units / 6% ROI)
• Tyler Fitzgerald has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 48 games (+16.60 Units / 27% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.04 vs San Francisco Giants 4.11

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