Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Pick – 4/8/2025

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies will host the Milwaukee Brewers on April 8, 2025, in what marks the first game of their series. The Rockies are struggling this season with a 2-7 record, while the Brewers sit at a more respectable 5-5. The Rockies' recent woes are underscored by a lackluster offense, which they will look to get into gear in this game.

Kyle Freeland is projected to start for the Rockies. Though he boasts an impressive 2.13 ERA this year, his advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat fortunate, as his 2.86 SIERA indicates a potential decline in performance moving forward. Freeland is also expected to pitch an average of only 5.0 innings, allowing around 3.3 earned runs, which could spell trouble against a Brewers lineup that has been more productive than the Rockies.

On the other hand, Freddy Peralta is set to take the mound for the Brewers. With an ERA of 2.08 and a strong 34.8% strikeout rate, Peralta poses a significant challenge for a Rockies offense that has the 5th most strikeouts in MLB. The projections suggest he might struggle with giving up hits, but his ability to generate strikeouts could neutralize Colorado's efforts.

The Rockies have been underwhelming at the plate, ranking poorly in both home runs and batting average. Meanwhile, the Brewers have a slightly better offensive ranking. With a game total set at a high 9.5 runs, this matchup could lean heavily in favor of Milwaukee, especially with their better starting pitcher on the mound.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #6 HR venue in the league in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

There has been a decrease in Joey Ortiz's average exit velocity this year, from 87.8 mph last year to 81.2 mph now

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 7.3% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers grades them out as the #25 group of hitters in MLB since the start of last season by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Kyle Freeland has relied on his change-up 10.5% less often this season (3.2%) than he did last year (13.7%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Ezequiel Tovar has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .324 figure is a good deal higher than his .279 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zac Veen in the 23rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 73 games at home (+7.50 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 77 away games (+8.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• Sal Frelick has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 51% ROI)

• Date: April 8, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies

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