Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago White Sox Prediction – 4/30/2025

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

On April 30, 2025, the Chicago White Sox will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Guaranteed Rate Field in a pivotal Interleague matchup. The White Sox are struggling this season with a record of 7-22, ranking 29th in MLB offense, while the Brewers sit at a more balanced 15-15, placing them 16th in overall offensive performance. In their last game against each other, the Brewers secured a victory, continuing their momentum while the White Sox seek to break free from their dismal start.

Projected starters Shane Smith and Tobias Myers will take the mound for their respective teams. Smith, who has a solid 2.30 ERA this year, is seen as a below-average pitcher in terms of Power Rankings, sitting at 141st among approximately 350 pitchers. However, his ERA indicates he has performed well, albeit with potential regression looming as suggested by his higher xFIP of 4.35. He projects to pitch 5.0 innings while allowing 2.2 earned runs, though his tendency to give up 4.5 hits and 1.7 walks may be concerning.

On the other hand, Myers has had a rough start to the season, with a 4.50 ERA and an xFIP of 7.49, indicating he may have been fortunate in his limited appearances. He projects to pitch slightly longer than Smith at 5.4 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs but also giving up an average of 5.1 hits and 1.4 walks.

The White Sox's chances hinge on their ability to overcome their lowly offensive rankings, particularly against a Brewers team that has shown average hitting and exceptional speed on the basepaths. With a Game Total of 7.5 runs, expectations are low for scoring, which may favor the Brewers given their stronger overall performance this season. The White Sox are currently an underdog with a moneyline of +140, suggesting they may face an uphill battle in this matchup.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

In his last GS, Tobias Myers struggled when it came to striking batters out and only managed to post 2 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Sal Frelick has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 85.8-mph average to last year's 83.4-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Rhys Hoskins pulls many of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Shane Smith is an extreme groundball pitcher (42.7% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #9 HR venue among all parks — in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Extreme flyball batters like Joshua Palacios are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tobias Myers.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Chicago White Sox have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.55 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+13.95 Units / 93% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.39, Chicago White Sox 4.11

• Date: April 30, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers
  • Shane Smith - White Sox

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