Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago White Sox Pick – 5/1/2025

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

On May 1, 2025, the Chicago White Sox will host the Milwaukee Brewers for the third game of their series at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox are currently struggling with a record of 7-23, sitting at the bottom of the division, while the Brewers stand at 16-15, showcasing a competitive spirit this season. Despite their current standings, the Brewers are projected as heavy favorites, with respectably strong performances lately.

In their last game, the Brewers topped the White Sox, which adds to Chicago's mounting woes. The White Sox are experiencing a particularly tough year, ranking 29th in overall offense and last in team batting average. In contrast, the Brewers have demonstrated a more balanced attack, sitting 16th in the league offensively. Their ability to capitalize on base opportunities is notable, placing 2nd in stolen bases this season.

On the mound, Sean Burke is slated to start for the White Sox. Burke has struggled, with a Win/Loss record of 1-4 and a troubling ERA of 6.00 this year. However, his advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky, with a 5.31 xFIP projecting a potential turnaround. Conversely, Chad Patrick takes the hill for the Brewers. Patrick boasts a stellar ERA of 2.45, although projections indicate he may be due for some regression.

The game total is set at 8.5 runs, which matches the average, suggesting a close matchup. With the White Sox facing challenges offensively, the Brewers should take advantage of the White Sox's lack of power against a flyball pitcher like Patrick. Despite the odds, there's a chance for the White Sox to surprise given the unpredictable nature of baseball, particularly in a volatile matchup like this one.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Batters such as Christian Yelich with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Sean Burke who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Rhys Hoskins pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Sean Burke’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2581 rpm) has been significantly better than than his seasonal rate (2524 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Andrew Vaughn has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 9.3% rate last year to 14.9% this season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 2nd-weakest projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the Chicago White Sox.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+4.95 Units / 80% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.85 Units / 28% ROI)
• Christian Yelich has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 20 games (+5.60 Units / 28% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5.33, Chicago White Sox 4.34

• Date: May 1, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chad Patrick - Brewers
  • Sean Burke - White Sox

Get daily MLB picks here.