Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction For 9/13/2024

• Date: September 13, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
  • Eduardo Rodriguez - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

On September 13, 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Chase Field in what promises to be an exciting matchup between two competitive National League teams. The Diamondbacks currently sit at 82-64, while the Brewers lead with an 84-62 record. Both teams are in strong positions as they push toward the postseason, making this game significant.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez, who has had a rocky year with a 5.83 ERA and a 2-2 record across six starts. Despite his struggles, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for a turnaround, as his xFIP sits at 5.14, indicating he has been somewhat unlucky. Rodriguez's average projections for today include allowing 2.7 earned runs and striking out 4.9 batters, which could be a concern against a potent Brewers lineup.

Freddy Peralta, the Brewers' right-handed starter, has been more consistent this season, holding a 3.81 ERA and a 10-8 record in 29 starts. Peralta's projections also reflect an average outing, with expected runs allowed at 2.6 and strikeouts at 5.3. However, he faces a challenge against the Diamondbacks' powerful offense, which ranks 1st in MLB and has belted 183 home runs this season.

The Diamondbacks' offense has been particularly hot lately, with Eugenio Suarez leading the charge over the last week, boasting a .600 batting average and four home runs. This offensive firepower could exploit Peralta's flyball tendencies. In contrast, the Brewers' best hitter, William Contreras, has also performed well but may find it difficult against the D-Backs' elite lineup.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Diamondbacks are favored to win with a projected score of 4.67 runs, while the Brewers are expected to score around 4.64 runs. With both teams evenly matched, this game is shaping up to be a thrilling contest.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest among every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Brice Turang has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (62% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been the luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future games

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Recording 91.8 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Eduardo Rodriguez falls in the 75th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Pavin Smith has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph to 101.3-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen projects as the 4th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 104 games (+27.20 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 74 of their last 141 games (+11.15 Units / 7% ROI)
• Willy Adames has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 22 away games (+13.10 Units / 58% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.72 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.55

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