Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners Pick – 4/25/2025

Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners host the Miami Marlins at T-Mobile Park on April 25, 2025, both teams come into this matchup looking to find their rhythm in a critical Interleague series. The Mariners are currently 14-11 this season and are experiencing a solid campaign, while the Marlins sit at 11-13, struggling to find their footing. Notably, Logan Gilbert will be taking the mound for the Mariners, with the Mariners entering this game at 4-1 on the season in games Gilbert has started.

Gilbert, ranked as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, carries a 2.63 ERA this year, indicating excellent performance. He’s projected to pitch an average of 6.5 innings, allowing only 1.9 earned runs, which bodes well against a Marlins offense that has been average overall but ranks 23rd in home runs. Conversely, Cal Quantrill is expected to start for Miami, and his struggles are evident, with an ERA of 8.31 this season. Despite his low strikeout rate, Quantrill's high walk percentage could be a liability against a Mariners lineup that leads the league in walks.

While the Mariners are 10th overall in offensive ranking, their power and patience at the plate play well against Quantrill's tendency to issue free passes. With a low game total of 7.5 runs set for this contest, oddsmakers have positioned the Mariners as significant favorites, with a moneyline of -255 reflecting a strong likelihood of victory. With Gilbert's capabilities highlighted against a struggling Marlins lineup, Seattle looks good to capitalize on their strengths and pull off a win in this important matchup.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Cal Quantrill has relied on his secondary pitches 14.4% more often this year (74.2%) than he did last year (59.8%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jesus Sanchez may have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Miami Marlins have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dane Myers, Matt Mervis, Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Logan Gilbert's 2171-rpm spin rate on his fastball this season is a sizeable 137-rpm increase from last season's 2034-rpm figure.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Extreme groundball bats like Jorge Polanco tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Cal Quantrill.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Seattle Mariners bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.00 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.05 Units / 34% ROI)
• Matt Mervis has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+16.70 Units / 186% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.21, Seattle Mariners 4.87

• Date: April 25, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cal Quantrill - Marlins
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners

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