Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick – 4/28/2025

Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

On April 28, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Miami Marlins at Dodger Stadium for the first game of their series. The Dodgers enter this matchup with a strong record of 18-10, showcasing their status as one of the top teams in the National League. They are currently 3rd in the division, while the Marlins sit at 12-15, struggling to find their footing at 4th in the division. The Dodgers are coming off a notable performance, having beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 9-2 in their last game.

Dustin May is projected to take the mound for the Dodgers. While his 1-1 record this season may not jump off the page, his 3.68 ERA indicates solid performance, especially with a FIP of 3.12 suggesting he has been a bit unlucky. The projections indicate that May is expected to pitch around 5.8 innings and allow just 2.2 earned runs. His high walk rate could be a concern, but facing a Marlins offense that ranks 6th least in walks could mitigate that risk.

On the other side, Edward Cabrera will start for the Marlins. With a troubling 6.14 ERA and a record of 0-1, Cabrera has struggled this season, projecting to pitch only 4.6 innings while allowing 2.9 earned runs. His high-flyball tendencies could spell trouble against a Dodgers lineup that ranks 1st in home runs, having already blasted 45 this season.

While the Dodgers' offense ranks 20th in batting average, their overall offensive talent is still impressive, reflected in their 8th best ranking. In contrast, the Marlins have an average offense ranked 15th but excel in batting average at 5th overall. However, their power numbers are lacking, ranking 24th in home runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Edward Cabrera is an extreme groundball pitcher (46.2% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #5 HR venue in MLB — today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Typically, batters like Dane Myers who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Dustin May.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Miami Marlins have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dane Myers, Connor Norby, Matt Mervis, Kyle Stowers).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Dustin May's high usage rate of his fastball (55% since the start of last season) is likely weakening his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Michael Conforto has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen profiles as the 4th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.75, Los Angeles Dodgers 5.71

• Date: April 28, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins
  • Dustin May - Dodgers

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