Miami Marlins vs Chicago White Sox Pick – 5/9/2025

As the Miami Marlins visit Guaranteed Rate Field to take on the Chicago White Sox on May 9, 2025, it marks the beginning of a crucial series for both teams, who are struggling this season. The White Sox sit at 10-28, the worst record in the American League, while the Marlins are not far behind at 14-22. Both teams are desperately seeking a spark as they look to turn their seasons around.

On the mound, Bryse Wilson, projected to start for the White Sox, has had a tough season, holding a 5.56 ERA alongside a daunting record of 0-1. Despite being ranked 304th out of approximately 350 pitchers, the projections suggest he may be slightly better than his numbers indicate. In contrast, Marlins starter Max Meyer has been solid, boasting a commendable 3.92 ERA. His ability to generate ground balls could limit the impact of the White Sox's dismal power numbers.

With Chicago’s bullpen ranked 28th and Miami’s at 30th in Power Rankings, both teams will hope their starters can go deep into the game. The current game total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting the struggles both offenses have faced. Given the circumstances, Miami's slight edge in starting pitching and recent offensive performance could tip the scales in their favor, making them a team to watch as they look to capitalize on the White Sox's vulnerabilities.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Max Meyer's fastball spin rate has spiked 131 rpm this season (2517 rpm) over where it was last season (2386 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Xavier Edwards's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 87.1-mph average last season has lowered to 83.9-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Jesus Sanchez has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Bryse Wilson is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.9% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #7 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Extreme flyball hitters like Joshua Palacios are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Max Meyer.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Chicago White Sox projected offense profiles as the 3rd-weakest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+4.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 32 games (+10.75 Units / 30% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.10 Units / 38% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.61, Chicago White Sox 3.98

• Date: May 9, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Meyer - Marlins
  • Bryse Wilson - White Sox

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