Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals Pick – 4/8/2025

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals host the Los Angeles Dodgers in what shapes up to be an intriguing matchup on April 8, 2025. Both teams are heading into the second game of their series, with the Nationals taking the first game in surprising fashion. The Nationals, struggling with a 4-6 record, find themselves near the bottom of the standings, while the Dodgers, boasting a 9-3 record, are currently riding high.

On the mound, Brad Lord is set to make his first start of the season for the Nationals. Despite being projected as the #146 best starting pitcher in MLB, Lord has had a rough start, as evidenced by his 6.74 xFIP, which indicates he’s been fortunate so far. His low strikeout rate and high groundball percentage could give him an edge against the powerful Dodgers offense, known for their ability to hit home runs. Lord projects to pitch an average of 3.0 innings, allowing around 1.5 earned runs, and he will need to be sharp to keep the Dodgers at bay.

Opposing him is Justin Wrobleski, whose struggles have placed him among the least effective pitchers in the league. He projects to pitch nearly 5 innings, allowing about 2.4 earned runs, but his high walk and hit projections (1.8 walks and 4.7 hits) could be problematic against a Nationals lineup that, despite ranking #29 in overall offense, has some potential to capitalize on Wrobleski's weaknesses.

Interestingly, while the projections suggest a high-scoring game with a total set at 9.0 runs, the Nationals are perceived as big underdogs with a moneyline of +155. This could create a tantalizing opportunity for bettors looking to capitalize on the Dodgers’ current form against a struggling Nationals team.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Extreme flyball bats like Max Muncy usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brad Lord.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen ranks as the best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Bradley Lord to be on a bit of a short leash in today's game, projecting a maximum of 61 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

James Wood has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 85 of their last 153 games (+6.30 Units / 3% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 61 of their last 96 games (+29.25 Units / 28% ROI)
• Keibert Ruiz has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+7.85 Units / 37% ROI)

• Date: April 8, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Wrobleski - Dodgers
  • Brad Lord - Nationals

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.