Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 4/5/2025

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citizens Bank Park on April 5, 2025, both teams come into this matchup riding high early in the season. The Phillies boast a strong 6-1 record, while the Dodgers sit at 8-1, making this a compelling clash between two of the league's top contenders. In their previous meeting on April 4, the Phillies edged out the Dodgers by a score of 3-2, adding to the stakes of this series.

The Phillies are projected to start Aaron Nola, who has had a rough start this season with an ERA of 8.44 after just one outing. However, his 2.23 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky, and he projects to strike out an average of 6.0 batters today. Nola's high flyball rate (43%) could be a concern against a powerful Dodgers offense that ranks 2nd in MLB with 19 home runs this year.

On the other side, Roki Sasaki will take the mound for the Dodgers. With a 5.79 ERA and a low strikeout rate of 19.2%, he faces a Phillies lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB offensively. Sasaki's projections indicate he may struggle to go deep into the game, averaging only 4.4 innings pitched.

Despite their recent success, the Dodgers' offense has struggled with consistency, ranking 23rd in batting average. The projections indicate that the Phillies' potent lineup could exploit Sasaki's weaknesses, especially given their #1 ranking in team batting average.

With both teams showing potential but also having areas of concern, this matchup promises to be a thrilling contest as they vie for supremacy in the National League. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive showdown.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Roki Sasaki to be limited in this game, projecting a maximum of 76 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Michael Conforto has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (71% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Mookie Betts pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.9% — 87th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Aaron Nola has used his curveball 9.7% less often this season (23.2%) than he did last year (32.9%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

This year, there has been a decline in Trea Turner's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.56 ft/sec last year to 28.4 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The 5th-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 51 games at home (+10.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 62 of their last 100 games (+26.75 Units / 24% ROI)
• Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+5.75 Units / 20% ROI)

• Date: April 5, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Roki Sasaki - Dodgers
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies

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