Los Angeles Dodgers VS Minnesota Twins Betting Pick & Preview – 04/09/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins Overview

• Date: April 9, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Glasnow - Dodgers
  • Louie Varland - Twins
• Umpire:
• Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 -110, Twins 1.5 -110
• Money Line: Dodgers -185, Twins 160
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Los Angeles Dodgers - 63%
• Minnesota Twins - 37%

Projected Win %:

• Los Angeles Dodgers - 60.9%
• Minnesota Twins - 39.1%

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins Game Preview & Prediction

The Minnesota Twins (3-5) are set to face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers (9-4) in an Interleague matchup on April 9, 2024. The game will take place at Target Field, with the Twins serving as the home team.

On the mound for the Twins, right-handed pitcher Louie Varland is projected to start. Varland has struggled this season, with a record of 0-1 and an ERA of 6.75. However, advanced-stat Power Rankings consider him to be a below-average pitcher. His 4.18 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may improve in future outings. Varland is expected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs on average, and striking out 5.4 batters.

For the Dodgers, right-handed pitcher Tyler Glasnow is projected to start. Glasnow has been exceptional this season, boasting a record of 2-0 and an ERA of 3.18. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, he is considered an elite pitcher. However, his 4.24 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate and could regress in the future. Glasnow is projected to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs on average, and striking out 7.3 batters.

In terms of offense, the Twins have struggled this season, ranking 24th in MLB. Their batting average ranks 22nd, while their home run production ranks 7th. On the other hand, the Dodgers have excelled offensively, ranking 3rd in MLB. They have been particularly strong in home run production, ranking 2nd in the league.

With regard to team rankings, the Twins' bullpen is considered average, ranking 12th, while the Dodgers' bullpen ranks 13th. These rankings are based on the underlying talent and not just year-to-date performance.

In terms of betting odds, the Dodgers are favored to win this game with a moneyline of -170, giving them an implied win probability of 61%. The Twins, on the other hand, are considered underdogs with a moneyline of +150 and an implied win probability of 39%.

Overall, the Dodgers are expected to have the advantage in this game due to their strong pitching and potent offense. However, baseball can be unpredictable, and anything can happen on any given day.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Teoscar Hernandez has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.3-mph to 99.9-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

In today's game, Mookie Betts is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.6% rate (95th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Louie Varland is expected to rack up an average of 15.2 outs in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Kirilloff in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Minnesota Twins have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, Willi Castro).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 56 games (+11.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 83 of their last 146 games (+22.75 Units / 13% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 45 games (+8.10 Units / 13% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.26 vs Minnesota Twins 3.92

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