Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 5/6/2025

The Miami Marlins are set to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 6, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting matchup at LoanDepot Park. After falling to the Dodgers in the first game of the series, the Marlins are looking to bounce back from their disappointing season, currently sitting at 13-21. In stark contrast, the Dodgers are enjoying a strong campaign with a record of 24-11.

On the mound for the Marlins will be Cal Quantrill, who has struggled this season with a Win/Loss record of 2-3 and an ERA of 8.10, making him one of the least effective pitchers in MLB as per advanced stats, ranking 298th out of approximately 350. However, his 4.86 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit unlucky, hinting at potential improvement. Quantrill is projected to pitch just 4.6 innings today and is expected to allow around 3.2 earned runs, which does not inspire confidence.

In contrast, the Dodgers will counter with Tony Gonsolin, an average pitcher who has had a solid start to his season, boasting a 1-0 record and a 4.50 ERA. Gonsolin's projections indicate he will pitch about 5.1 innings with 2.5 earned runs allowed, making him a more reliable option today. His low walk rate could also play in his favor, especially against a Marlins offense that ranks 6th in least walks drawn.

The Dodgers' offense ranks 3rd overall in MLB, showcasing their prowess with a powerful lineup that includes a 2nd place ranking in team home runs. In contrast, the Marlins’ offense is average at best, ranking 17th. With a Game Total set at a high 9.5 runs, the projections suggest that the Dodgers will likely dominate this matchup, with a very high implied team total of 5.84 runs compared to the Marlins' low total of 3.66 runs. Given their current form and the disparities in pitching and offensive capabilities, the Dodgers appear to be well-positioned to continue their winning ways.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Extreme flyball batters like Max Muncy are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Cal Quantrill.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Max Muncy pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.2% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 4th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The Miami Marlins infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst out of every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Matt Mervis has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (71% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby, Matt Mervis).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.50 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.50 Units / 37% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+13.10 Units / 54% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 6.15, Miami Marlins 4.19

• Date: May 6, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tony Gonsolin - Dodgers
  • Cal Quantrill - Marlins

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