Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 5/5/2025

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

On May 5, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at LoanDepot Park in what marks the first game of their series. The Marlins find themselves struggling this season with a record of 13-20, while the Dodgers are enjoying a solid stretch at 23-11. Interestingly, both teams enter this matchup after contrasting recent performances; Miami's Sandy Alcantara is projected to start, despite his rocky season and an ERA of 8.31.

The matchup presents a significant challenge for Miami, as they face a Dodgers offense that ranks 3rd best in MLB, boasting power with 54 home runs this season. Alcantara's high-groundball rate of 54% could provide him with an edge, as it may mitigate the Dodgers' home-run prowess if he can keep the ball on the ground. However, his projections indicate a struggle, with expected averages of 5.6 hits and 3.0 earned runs, which could spell trouble against a potent lineup.

On the other hand, Los Angeles will likely send Ben Casparius to the mound, who, despite being one of the lower-ranked pitchers according to the Power Rankings, has a commendable ERA of 2.91 and an undefeated record of 3-0. His projections show he may only pitch 3.9 innings but is expected to keep runs to a minimum, allowing around 2.0 earned runs.

With the game total set at a high 9.5 runs, oddsmakers see this matchup as one where both offenses can make an impact. The Dodgers are heavily favored with a moneyline of -175, reflecting their strong season and offensive capability. Meanwhile, the Marlins, despite their struggles, remain a team capable of surprising, especially with a hitter who is riding a hot streak.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Out of all SPs, Ben Casparius's fastball spin rate of 2460 rpm ranks in the 88th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Freddie Freeman is likely to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Max Muncy pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.3% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 4th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Considering that groundball hitters have a big edge over flyball pitchers, Sandy Alcantara and his 50% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a hard spot in this matchup squaring off against 4 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme flyball batters like Javier Sanoja tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Ben Casparius.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt Mervis, Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.30 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.85 Units / 28% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.6, Miami Marlins 4.29

• Date: May 5, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Casparius - Dodgers
  • Sandy Alcantara - Marlins

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.