Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros Prediction & Picks 7/27/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros Details

• Date: July 27, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Wrobleski - Dodgers
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As we approach the second game of the series on July 27, 2024, the Houston Astros will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Minute Maid Park. Both teams are having solid seasons, with the Dodgers' 62-43 record outshining the Astros' 54-49 mark.

Ronel Blanco, a right-handed pitcher, will start for the Astros, facing Justin Wrobleski, a left-hander for the Dodgers. Blanco has been impressive with a 2.75 ERA in his 19 starts, but his 4.19 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit lucky. His 9-5 record indicates solid results despite some concerns. Blanco’s flyball tendencies, paired with the Dodgers' 3rd-ranked home run-hitting offense, might spell trouble. Additionally, his high walk rate could be exploited by the Dodgers, who are 2nd in MLB in drawing walks.

On the other side, Wrobleski has had a shaky start to his season, posting a 4.40 ERA and a 4.97 xFIP. With just three starts under his belt and an average of only 4.5 innings per outing, he's yet to find his footing. The Astros, boasting the 2nd-highest team batting average and 9th most home runs in MLB, are well-equipped to take advantage of his struggles.

Jeremy Pena has been on fire for the Astros, hitting .409 with a 1.231 OPS over the last week. His recent surge could prove critical against Wrobleski. Conversely, Gavin Lux has been tearing it up for the Dodgers, batting .550 with a 1.621 OPS in the past seven games.

The game total is set at 8.5 runs, and with both offenses ranking in the top 10, it seems a fair projection. The Astros are slight favorites at -135, reflecting an implied win probability of 55%. Given the Dodgers' powerhouse lineup and the Astros' potentially overachieving starter, this matchup promises to be a close and exciting contest.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

With 7 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Justin Wrobleski faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Shohei Ohtani has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.4-mph to 100.5-mph over the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense ranks as the 3rd-best on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Ronel Blanco's 92.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.1-mph drop off from last year's 93.8-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Jake Meyers has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .233 mark is a good deal lower than his .275 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Houston Astros hitters as a group have been among the best in the league this year (10th-) when it comes to their 89-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 46 games (+17.70 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 36 away games (+2.75 Units / 7% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani has hit the RBIs Over in 19 of his last 33 games (+10.65 Units / 31% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.19 vs Houston Astros 4.86

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