Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 5/9/2025

The Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 9, 2025, in a pivotal National League West matchup. Both teams are having solid seasons, with the Dodgers at 25-13, showcasing their status as one of the top clubs in the league, while the Diamondbacks are holding their own at 20-18. In their previous game, the Dodgers lost to the Diamondbacks, and Los Angeles will look for a bounce-back performance tonight.

Eduardo Rodriguez is projected to start for the Diamondbacks, coming off a challenging season with a 5.92 ERA, signaling his struggles on the mound. However, metrics like his 3.38 xFIP suggest he may have been a victim of bad luck, and he could turn things around soon. His average projections point towards mediocrity for today’s game, giving him a mixed report.

Facing Rodriguez will be the Dodgers' Roki Sasaki, who's been effective this season with a 3.86 ERA. Yet, his 5.22 xFIP indicates he might have benefitted from good fortune, creating a matchup where the Diamondbacks' patient offense—ranking 2nd in the league for walks—can exploit his high walk rate of 14.9%. This indicates the potential for the Diamondbacks to draw runs through walks, putting pressure on the rookie pitcher.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks rank as the 5th best in MLB, while the Dodgers dominate at 2nd; this sets the stage for an exciting contest. The Game Total is currently set at 10.0 runs, highlighting expectations for a high-scoring affair. Betting lines slightly favor the Dodgers, but the Diamondbacks have a high implied team total of 4.77 runs, suggesting a close contest is in the cards.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Roki Sasaki is an extreme flyball pitcher (34% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #29 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Extreme flyball batters like Miguel Rojas usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Eduardo Rodriguez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected lineup grades out as the strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Eduardo Rodriguez has relied on his cutter 5.3% less often this season (13.9%) than he did last year (19.2%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Arizona's 90.2-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in the majors: #4 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+4.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 46% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.30 Units / 51% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.09, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.76

• Date: May 9, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Roki Sasaki - Dodgers
  • Eduardo Rodriguez - D-Backs

Get daily MLB picks here.