Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 5/8/2025

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 8, 2025, at Chase Field, both teams bring distinct narratives to the field. The Dodgers, boasting a 25-12 record, are in the midst of a strong season, while the Diamondbacks sit at 19-18, struggling to find consistency. Yesterday, the Dodgers faced the Miami Marlins and emerged victorious, and they look to continue their winning ways against a team that has shown flashes of offensive brilliance but lacks the same pitching depth.

Brandon Pfaadt is projected to take the mound for the Diamondbacks. While he holds a respectable ERA of 3.79 and a solid 5-2 win/loss record, advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat fortunate this season. His FIP of 4.40 indicates that he could face tougher challenges going forward. The projections show he will average around 5.5 innings, potentially allowing 3.0 earned runs while striking out 4.8 batters.

On the other side, the Dodgers will counter with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who enters the game as one of the elite pitchers in MLB, ranked 3rd overall with an astonishing ERA of 0.90. He's expected to pitch 5.8 innings while allowing around 2.3 earned runs and striking out an average of 5.6 batters.

The Dodgers’ offense ranks 2nd in the league, and with their projected team total of 4.66 runs, they have a significant edge. Meanwhile, Arizona's offense, despite ranking 5th overall, may struggle against an elite pitcher like Yamamoto.

With an average Game Total set at 8.5 runs and the Diamondbacks listed as underdogs, this matchup presents a compelling opportunity for bettors to watch how Arizona’s offense fares against one of the league’s best pitchers.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has utilized his change-up 5.4% more often this year (29.5%) than he did last season (24.1%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Max Muncy has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (79% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen profiles as the 4th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt's 92.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.2-mph fall off from last season's 93.9-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Gabriel Moreno has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97.7-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 92.5-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Ketel Marte hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 86th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 65% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.15 Units / 21% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+7.10 Units / 42% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.37, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.03

• Date: May 8, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs

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