Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 5/10/2025

On May 10, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chase Field in what promises to be an engaging National League West matchup. The Diamondbacks are currently sitting at 20-19, having shown flashes of promise, while the Dodgers boast an impressive 26-13 record, ranking them as one of the league's top teams. Both clubs are coming off a tightly contested game yesterday, further intensifying their rivalry.

Arizona's projected starter, Corbin Burnes, is having a solid season with a 3.58 ERA, but his 4.38 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit lucky so far. Burnes has started six games this year, holding a 1-1 record, but he projects to pitch only 4.8 innings today, allowing around 2.5 earned runs with a concerning average of 4.8 hits and 1.8 walks allowed. The Diamondbacks will rely on their potent offense, currently ranked 6th best in MLB, particularly their power, as they sit 7th in home runs.

On the other side, the Dodgers will send Dustin May to the mound. He carries a 4.36 ERA and a 1-2 record over six starts. While his strikeout rate could improve, he projects to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs and 5.3 hits. The Dodgers' offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 2nd in MLB.

With the game total set at a high 9.0 runs and both teams showing potential, bettors may find value in the Diamondbacks' implied team total of 4.39 runs as they face a pitcher who struggles with control. This matchup could tilt in Arizona's favor if Burnes can outshine May and harness his offense’s power effectively.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Dustin May was in good form in his previous game started and conceded 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Max Muncy is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The best projected lineup on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Considering that flyball hitters hold a notable advantage over groundball pitchers, Corbin Burnes and his 46.1% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough spot in today's outing squaring off against 5 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Gabriel Moreno has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.8-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 93-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Arizona's 90.2-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in the majors: #4 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.90 Units / 52% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.65 Units / 32% ROI)
• Michael Conforto has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+8.90 Units / 20% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.15, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.86

• Date: May 10, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dustin May - Dodgers
  • Corbin Burnes - D-Backs

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