Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 15, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Yarbrough - Dodgers
  • Logan Webb - Giants

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated National League West matchup, the San Francisco Giants will take on the Los Angeles Dodgers at Oracle Park on May 15, 2024. The Giants, currently having a tough season with a record of 19-25, will be looking to turn their fortunes around against the dominant Dodgers, who boast an impressive 29-15 record.

The Giants, serving as the home team, will rely on their projected starting pitcher, right-hander Logan Webb, who has been performing exceptionally well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Webb is considered the 12th best starting pitcher in MLB, demonstrating his elite skills on the mound. In his nine starts this year, Webb has recorded a win-loss record of 3-4 with an impressive ERA of 3.38. However, it's worth noting that his 4.69 xERA suggests that he may have been lucky thus far and could face some challenges going forward.

On the other side, the Dodgers will send left-hander Ryan Yarbrough to the mound. While Yarbrough has a solid win-loss record of 3-1 and an impressive ERA of 2.56, our advanced-stat Power Rankings indicate that he falls short compared to other MLB pitchers. His 4.88 xFIP suggests that he may have benefited from some luck and could face difficulties in upcoming performances.

The Giants' offense has struggled this season, ranking 24th in MLB. Their team batting average of 21st and low ranking in stolen bases indicate a lack of offensive power. In contrast, the Dodgers boast the best offense in MLB, ranking first overall. With a strong lineup and the second-most home runs in the league, the Dodgers pose a significant challenge for any pitcher.

While the Giants have the advantage of playing at home, their projected win probability of 51% suggests it will be a close game. The moneyline odds also indicate a tight matchup, with the Giants at +115 and the Dodgers at -135, implying a 45% and 55% win probability, respectively.

Based on THE BAT X projections, the Giants are expected to score an average of 4.20 runs, while the Dodgers are projected to score 4.32 runs. The Giants' bullpen, ranked first in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, could provide crucial support in this matchup.

With the Giants aiming to turn their season around and the Dodgers looking to maintain their dominance, this game promises to be an exciting battle between two NL West rivals. The odds and projections suggest a close contest, providing potential value in betting on the Giants.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Ryan Yarbrough turned in a great performance in his previous game started and conceded 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Max Muncy has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (80% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Outman, Andy Pages, Max Muncy, Teoscar Hernandez).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Considering that flyball hitters have a substantial advantage over groundball pitchers, Logan Webb and his 56.4% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome position in today's outing going up against 0 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

LaMonte Wade Jr. is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Los Angeles Dodgers only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.35 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.25 Units / 38% ROI)
• James Outman has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 46% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 4.5 vs San Francisco Giants 4.21

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