Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 4/8/2025

Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

On April 8, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Los Angeles Angels at George M. Steinbrenner Field, marking the first game of the series between these two American League rivals. The Rays enter this matchup with a record of 4-5, struggling to find consistency early in the season. Meanwhile, the Angels sit at a strong 6-3, showcasing their offensive prowess and solid play.

The Rays' projected starter, Shane Baz, has made a promising start this season, boasting a perfect 0.00 ERA in his sole outing. However, advanced metrics indicate he may have been fortunate, as his xERA sits at 2.05, suggesting potential regression. Baz projects to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing approximately 2.3 earned runs while striking out 5.9 batters. Conversely, Kyle Hendricks of the Angels, despite being projected as one of the weaker pitchers in MLB, has an impressive 3.00 ERA this season. His projection shows he could pitch 5.5 innings while yielding about 2.8 earned runs, although he may struggle with strikeouts.

The Rays have a solid bullpen, ranked 6th in MLB, which could play a crucial role if this game stays close. As the betting favorite with a moneyline of -170, the Rays have an implied team total of 4.47 runs, positioning them as the team to watch despite their rocky start.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Out of all SPs, Kyle Hendricks's fastball velocity of 87.4 mph ranks in the 1st percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Luis Rengifo is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Los Angeles Angels have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyren Paris, Logan O'Hoppe, Jo Adell).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Shane Baz (35% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 3 GB hitters in Los Angeles's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Yandy Diaz's average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 92.1-mph average last season has dropped off to 88.6-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen projects as the 6th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 88 of their last 150 games (+20.45 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 92 games (+5.50 Units / 5% ROI)
• Jorge Soler has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+5.60 Units / 15% ROI)

• Date: April 8, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Hendricks - Angels
  • Shane Baz - Rays

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.