Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – 4/1/2025

Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face the Los Angeles Angels on April 1, 2025, they enter the matchup with a solid 3-1 record this season, while the Angels share the same mark. Both teams are coming off a competitive series, indicating they are in good form early in the season. The Cardinals won the previous game against the Angels, setting the stage for what promises to be another thrilling contest at Busch Stadium.

Matthew Liberatore is set to take the mound for St. Louis. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, his advanced metrics indicate he is among the lower tier of MLB pitchers, ranked 280th out of approximately 350. He’s projected to pitch an average of 4.7 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, and striking out 4.2 batters, which is less than ideal. On the other hand, Kyle Hendricks is slated to start for the Angels. He also lacks elite status, but his projections suggest he can go slightly longer, averaging 5.1 innings, while allowing 2.5 earned runs.

The Cardinals’ offense, ranked 15th overall, is expected to score around 4.56 runs based on the current betting odds, while the Angels’ struggling lineup, which ranks 26th, projects to score an average of 3.94 runs. The Angels’ offense is particularly struggling this season, with a 28th ranking in team batting average, making it difficult for them to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Moreover, St. Louis’ bullpen ranks 20th, which is not ideal, but they have the advantage of home-field support and a higher implied team total. This matchup appears to favor the Cardinals, especially considering the Angels’ recent offensive woes and Liberatore's potential to outperform his projections at home.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Out of all starting pitchers, Kyle Hendricks's fastball velocity of 87.5 mph ranks in the 0th percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Logan O'Hoppe is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

It may be smart to expect stronger performance for the Los Angeles Angels offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in the majors since the start of last season.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Matthew Liberatore to have a pitch count in today's game, projecting a maximum of 80 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Ranking in the 99th percentile of THE BAT X's Spray Score since the start of last season, Masyn Winn demonstrated exceptional skill in hitting the ball to all fields - a crucial skill for achieving a high batting average.

• Hitters who can spray the ball around the field tend to have good bat control and a strong ability to generate hits.

The 6.9% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals ranks them as the #27 team in the majors since the start of last season by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games at home (+6.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 90 games (+5.50 Units / 6% ROI)
• Logan O'Hoppe has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 away games (+4.20 Units / 52% ROI)

• Date: April 1, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Hendricks - Angels
  • Matthew Liberatore - Cardinals

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