Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – 4/27/2025

Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

On April 27, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Los Angeles Angels at Target Field for the third game of their series. The Twins are looking to bounce back after a tough start to the season, currently sitting at 11-16, while the Angels are slightly ahead at 12-14. Both teams have struggled offensively, with the Twins ranking 23rd in the league and the Angels at 24th. However, the Angels have showcased their power, ranking 4th in home runs this season, which could play a pivotal role in today's matchup.

The Twins are projected to start Joe Ryan, who has had a solid season despite the team's struggles, with a 4.00 ERA and a SIERA of 3.04. Ryan has been particularly effective at striking out batters, averaging 7.6 strikeouts per game, but he has also allowed a concerning 4.4 hits and 1.1 walks per game. This high flyball rate (45% FB) could be problematic against an Angels lineup that thrives on power, having already hit 39 home runs this season.

On the other side, Jose Soriano is set to take the mound for the Angels. His ERA stands at 4.34, and while he has also been decent, he has struggled with walks, averaging 2.3 per game. Soriano’s projections suggest he might allow 2.2 earned runs today, which is manageable but still puts pressure on the offense to perform.

With the Twins favored at -155, their implied team total is 4.11 runs, while the Angels are projected for a low 3.39 runs. Given the Angels' power against a flyball pitcher like Ryan, they could capitalize on any mistakes made. As both teams look to improve their standings, this matchup promises to be a critical one in their early-season campaigns.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Jose Soriano's fastball velocity has dropped 1.6 mph this season (96.1 mph) below where it was last season (97.7 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Mike Trout has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.4-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 91.3-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Mike Trout hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan will "start" for Minnesota Twins in today's game but will be treated as more of an opener and may not last more than a couple frames.

• Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.

Extreme flyball bats like Byron Buxton generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jose Soriano.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Minnesota Twins have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (DaShawn Keirsey Jr., Byron Buxton, Edouard Julien).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.65 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 38% ROI)
• Byron Buxton has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+5.40 Units / 15% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 3.42, Minnesota Twins 4.03

• Date: April 27, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Soriano - Angels
  • Joe Ryan - Twins

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