Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox Prediction – 3/30/2025

Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to host the Los Angeles Angels on March 30, 2025, both teams enter the contest with identical 1-1 records this season. The matchup marks the third game of this series, heightening the stakes as each team seeks to gain an early edge in the season. Notably, the Angels' starting pitcher, Jack Kochanowicz, is coming off a troubling outing where he struggled to find his rhythm, while the White Sox will look to Davis Martin, who ranks as the 381st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics.

The White Sox have been performing at a lackluster level, with their projected starter Martin expected to pitch just 4.5 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs on average. His projections indicate a below-average strikeout rate of 4.1 and an alarming average of 4.8 hits allowed, coupled with 1.5 walks. In contrast, Kochanowicz projects to pitch an average of 5.3 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, which is more favorable than Martin's outlook.

Despite their struggles, the White Sox hold an average implied team total of 4.00 runs, while the Angels are projected for a higher 4.50 runs. With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, betting markets reflect a close contest ahead. The Angels are favored with a moneyline of -135, while the White Sox sit at +115, indicating a tightly contested matchup. Given the current projections, this game could hinge on which pitcher can outperform their expected stats, making it a crucial battle for both teams as they aim to improve their standings early in the season.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jack Kochanowicz to have a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.242) suggests that Kevin Newman has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his .298 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Los Angeles Angels have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyren Paris, Logan O'Hoppe, Mike Trout).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Davis Martin's high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (71.7% since the start of last season) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Luis Robert Jr. has a ton of pop (89th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (30.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jack Kochanowicz is a pitch-to-contact type (15th percentile K%) — great news for Robert Jr..

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox' bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+0.30 Units / 2% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+5.90 Units / 19% ROI)

• Date: March 30, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Kochanowicz - Angels
  • Davis Martin - White Sox

Get daily MLB picks here.