Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick & Preview 6/11/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: June 11, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Suarez - Angels
  • Jordan Montgomery - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Los Angeles Angels at Chase Field on June 11, 2024, in what promises to be an interesting Interleague matchup. Despite both teams having underwhelming seasons—the Diamondbacks standing at 31-35 and the Angels at 25-40—there are still numerous factors to consider for this game.

The Diamondbacks will send Jordan Montgomery to the mound. With a 3-4 record and a troubling 6.80 ERA, Montgomery's season has been far from stellar. However, his 4.63 xFIP from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests he's been unlucky and could be due for a performance improvement. Montgomery projects to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 3.0 earned runs, 6.4 hits, and 1.4 walks, while striking out 4.3 batters.

On the other side, the Angels will counter with Jose Suarez. Suarez has been even less reliable, with a 6.54 ERA and a 1-0 record. Like Montgomery, his xFIP of 4.54 indicates some bad luck. He is projected to pitch 3.9 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, 4.6 hits, and 1.5 walks, while striking out 3.1 batters.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks have shown strength in batting average, ranking 9th in MLB, but lack power, ranking just 21st in home runs. Their lineup is led by Ketel Marte, who has been on fire over the last week, hitting .421 with a 1.079 OPS. The Angels, despite having the 21st ranked offense overall, excel in power, ranking 7th in home runs. Logan O'Hoppe has been their standout performer recently, with a .571 batting average and a 1.500 OPS over the last week.

Bullpen performance has been a sticking point for both teams. The Diamondbacks' bullpen ranks 18th, while the Angels' ranks a lowly 28th. Given these rankings, late-inning pitching could be a significant factor in the game.

With a high game total of 9.0 runs, the betting market expects a fair amount of offense. The Diamondbacks, at -170, are big favorites with an implied win probability of 61%, reflecting their relative strength and home-field advantage. The Angels, as +150 underdogs, have a 39% implied win probability.

All in all, while neither team has been stellar this season, the Diamondbacks appear to have the upper hand in this matchup, especially considering their offensive consistency and home-field edge.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jose Suarez to be on a bit of a short leash in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Schanuel has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Jordan Montgomery has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.3% more often this season (52.1%) than he did last year (46.8%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .297 mark is a fair amount lower than his .399 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Blaze Alexander has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+8.00 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 18 of their last 26 games (+6.70 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jo Adell has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 35 games (+22.70 Units / 35% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.64 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.26

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.