Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction For 6/21/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: June 21, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Patrick Sandoval - Angels
  • Landon Knack - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Los Angeles Angels are set to clash in an interleague matchup on June 21, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers, with a stellar 47-30 record, are enjoying a fantastic season, while the Angels, at 29-45, are struggling mightily. This game marks the first in the series between these two teams.

On the mound for the Dodgers will be right-hander Landon Knack, who has shown promise with a 2.61 ERA over four starts this season. However, his 4.49 xFIP suggests he might have been lucky and could regress. Knack's projected performance isn't particularly inspiring, with an average of 4.9 innings pitched, 2.7 earned runs allowed, and just 4.0 strikeouts. Despite his solid ERA, Knack is ranked as the 240th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he's one of the weaker arms in the league.

The Angels will counter with left-hander Patrick Sandoval, who has had a rough season with a 5.24 ERA and a 2-8 record over 15 starts. However, his 3.88 xFIP indicates he's been unlucky and might improve. Sandoval is ranked 36th among MLB starting pitchers, showcasing his potential despite his struggles. He projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs and striking out 5.2 batters on average.

Offensively, the Dodgers boast the best lineup in MLB, ranking 1st in overall offense, 3rd in batting average, and 3rd in home runs. Their ability to draw walks, combined with Sandoval's high walk rate (9.6 BB%), could spell trouble for the Angels. The Angels' offense, on the other hand, is average, ranking 17th overall, 17th in batting average, and 10th in home runs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Dodgers a 58% chance to win, higher than the betting market's implied probability of 64%. Despite the odds, the Angels might offer some value as a big underdog, with a projected win probability that is 6% greater than the betting market suggests.

Keep an eye on Chris Taylor, who has been on fire for the Dodgers over the last week, hitting .444 with a 1.545 OPS. For the Angels, Luis Guillorme has been their standout hitter, also batting .444 with a 1.167 OPS over the past seven games.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Compared to the average pitcher, Patrick Sandoval has been granted an above-average leash this year, recording an additional 6.8 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Luis Rengifo is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Los Angeles (#3-best of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

It may be best to expect improved performance for the Los Angeles Angels offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Andy Pages is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen grades out as the 6th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.70 Units / 51% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.25 Units / 31% ROI)
• Luis Rengifo has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+10.85 Units / 22% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.76 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.3

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