Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox Best Bet – 4/14/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox Overview

• Date: April 14, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox
• Run Line: Angels 1.5 -175, Red Sox -1.5 150
• Money Line: Angels 115, Red Sox -135
• Total (Over/Under):9.5 -110

Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Los Angeles Angels - 45%
• Boston Red Sox - 55%

Projected Win %:

• Los Angeles Angels - 44.48%
• Boston Red Sox - 55.52%

Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox Game Preview & Prediction

On April 14, 2024, the Boston Red Sox will take on the Los Angeles Angels at Fenway Park in an American League matchup. The Red Sox, with a record of 8-7 this season, are having an above-average season, while the Angels hold a 7-7 record, indicating an average performance.

The Red Sox will have home-field advantage as they face the Angels, who will be the away team. The game is the third in the series between these two teams, with both teams looking to secure a victory.

The Red Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Brayan Bello, who has a record of 1-1 this season and an ERA of 4.11. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Bello is considered above average among MLB starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Angels are projected to start left-handed pitcher Tyler Anderson, who has a perfect 2-0 record and an impressive 0.00 ERA this season.

In terms of offensive performance, the Red Sox rank 22nd in MLB, while the Angels rank 16th. However, the Red Sox excel in team batting average, ranking 3rd in the league, while the Angels stand out in team home runs, ranking 3rd as well. The Red Sox bullpen is considered average, ranking 17th in MLB, while the Angels' bullpen is ranked 28th, indicating a weakness for the team.

The Red Sox's best hitter this season has been Triston Casas, who has been on fire in the last seven games. Over the past week, Casas has recorded 7 hits, 5 runs, 4 RBIs, and 2 home runs, with a batting average of .304 and an impressive OPS of .969. For the Angels, Mike Trout has been their standout hitter in the last seven games, with 8 hits, 5 runs, 5 RBIs, and 3 home runs, boasting a batting average of .348 and an OPS of 1.293.

Overall, the game is expected to be a close matchup, with both teams having their strengths and weaknesses. The Red Sox will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage and their above-average season, while the Angels aim to maintain their average performance and secure a victory on the road.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

With a 4.67 FIP since the start of last season (Fielding Independent Pitching, an ERA estimator that deals with the things a pitcher has the most control over), Tyler Anderson places him the 23rd percentile.

• ERA is a bad and misleading stat. FIP is an improved version of it and gives a better estimate of a pitcher's deserved runs allowed.

Hitters such as Anthony Rendon with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brayan Bello who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Aaron Hicks pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.5% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Masataka Yoshida is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Compared to their .317 overall projected rate, the .305 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Boston Red Sox projected lineup today suggests this version of the lineup a good deal weaker than usual.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Angels vs Red Sox Prediction: Angels 5.03 - Red Sox 5.34

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