Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 6/12/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: June 12, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Soriano - Angels
  • Slade Cecconi - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks are set to host the Los Angeles Angels on June 12, 2024, at Chase Field in the second game of their interleague series. The Diamondbacks, with a 31-35 record, have had a below-average season, while the Angels, standing at 25-40, are enduring a particularly rough patch. Yesterday, the Diamondbacks managed to snag a win, setting the stage for today's matchup.

Arizona will send Slade Cecconi to the mound. Cecconi, a right-hander, has struggled this season with a 5.66 ERA and just one win in eight starts. However, his xFIP of 4.96 suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky and may perform better moving forward. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Cecconi to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, 5.5 hits, and issuing only 1.0 walk on average.

On the mound for the Angels will be Jose Soriano, also a right-hander. With a 3.64 ERA, Soriano has been a bright spot for the Angels, despite his 3-5 record. The projections see him pitching 5.1 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, 5.2 hits, and 2.0 walks on average.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks have been solid, ranking 12th overall in MLB. Their team batting average is 9th best, though they lag in power (21st in home runs) and speed (20th in stolen bases). Jake McCarthy has been their standout hitter over the past week, boasting a .364 batting average and 1.225 OPS, with one home run and two stolen bases in his last five games.

In contrast, the Angels' offense has sputtered, ranking 21st overall. However, they do have some pop, ranking 8th in home runs and 7th in stolen bases. Zach Neto has been their best hitter over the past week, with a .872 OPS and one home run in four games.

With Arizona being the betting favorite at -145, the implied win probability stands at 57%. The Diamondbacks have a projected team total of 4.82 runs, while the Angels are expected to score 4.18 runs. Given the high game total of 9.0 runs, today's matchup promises to be an intriguing contest, with Arizona looking to capitalize on its offensive ranking and bullpen advantage.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Bats such as Luis Guillorme with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Slade Cecconi who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Slade Cecconi is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #30 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Jake McCarthy has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (79% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Blaze Alexander has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 away games (+7.30 Units / 31% ROI)
• Mickey Moniak has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+9.70 Units / 24% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.51 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.59

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