Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Diamondbacks Best Bet – 6/13/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: June 13, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Griffin Canning - Angels
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Angels will face off at Chase Field on June 13, 2024, in the third game of their series. The Diamondbacks, who are currently 32-35, are having a below-average season. Meanwhile, the Angels are struggling significantly with a 25-41 record. This interleague matchup features Brandon Pfaadt on the mound for Arizona and Griffin Canning for Los Angeles.

Pfaadt, a right-hander, is ranked as the 77th best starting pitcher in MLB, a testament to his above-average performance this season. Despite his 2-5 record, his 4.60 ERA is paired with a 3.61 xFIP, suggesting he's been unlucky and might improve. Pfaadt is projected to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 5.2 batters, solid numbers that could give Arizona a strong start.

On the other side, Canning has had a rough year, with a 2-6 record and a 4.65 ERA. His projections aren't favorable either, with 5.1 innings pitched, 3.0 earned runs, and only 3.9 strikeouts expected. The Angels' bullpen, ranked 29th in MLB, could also struggle to contain the Diamondbacks' offense, which ranks 12th overall and 8th in team batting average.

Arizona's offense, though not powerful in terms of home runs, has been consistent with its batting average. Jake McCarthy has been a standout hitter for the Diamondbacks over the last week, boasting a .400 batting average and a 1.238 OPS. His recent surge could be a key factor against Canning and the Angels' bullpen.

Los Angeles, while struggling overall, does have some offensive firepower, ranking 7th in team home runs. Taylor Ward has been their best hitter recently, with a 1.054 OPS over the last week. However, the Angels' low team batting average and bullpen woes might make it difficult to capitalize on Pfaadt's occasional inconsistencies.

The betting odds heavily favor the Diamondbacks, with a moneyline of -175 and an implied win probability of 62%. With Arizona's superior pitching and steady offense, they appear well-positioned to take advantage of the Angels' struggles.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Griffin Canning has used his slider 5% less often this year (24.7%) than he did last year (29.7%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Logan O'Hoppe's 15.3% Barrel% (an advanced stat to measure power) is in the 92nd percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt's 2537-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 96th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Corbin Carroll's quickness has decreased this year. His 30.05 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.44 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Blaze Alexander has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 58 games (+9.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 56 games (+7.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+9.35 Units / 22% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.33 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.38

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