Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 4/30/2025

Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face off against the Kansas City Royals on April 30, 2025, this matchup carries extra intrigue as the Rays look to rebound from a disappointing season. With a record of 14-15, Tampa Bay is currently underperforming, while Kansas City sits at an even 15-15, reflecting a more average season. The previous contest in this series saw the Rays narrowly edged out by the Royals, with the game highlighting the struggles on both sides.

On the mound, Tampa Bay will rely on Drew Rasmussen, who has emerged as an elite pitcher this year, ranked 13th among roughly 350 starters according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Rasmussen has showcased impressive skills with a stellar 2.10 ERA, signaling his ability to limit runs. However, projections indicate he may struggle today, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs over 5.3 innings while facing a Royals lineup that tends to make contact, ranking 4th lowest in strikeouts.

Conversely, Kansas City will counter with Noah Cameron, a left-handed pitcher projected to have a tougher outing. His numbers suggest he may only pitch 4.5 innings and is likely to surrender 2.5 earned runs, which could further compromise the Royals' already struggling offense, ranked 30th in MLB.

Despite their current form, the Rays possess a more potent offense, ranking 14th overall, which should provide an advantage, especially against Cameron. With a moneyline of -180 reflecting an implied team total of 4.82 runs, the Rays are favored to secure the win at George M. Steinbrenner Field, underscoring the betting community's faith in their potential to turn their season around.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Because of his reverse platoon split, Noah Cameron will hold the advantage facing 7 batters in the projected batting order of the opposite hand in today's outing.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Maikel Garcia is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of Tampa Bay (#2-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

In today's game, Salvador Perez is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.5% rate (94th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Among all the teams today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Tampa Bay Rays.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Chandler Simpson has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (63% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brandon Lowe, Christopher Morel, Jose Caballero).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.25 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 23 games (+11.40 Units / 44% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.10 Units / 82% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.27, Tampa Bay Rays 4.58

• Date: April 30, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Noah Cameron - Royals
  • Drew Rasmussen - Rays

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.