Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Pick – 4/15/2025

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

On April 15, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Kansas City Royals at Yankee Stadium in a pivotal American League matchup. The Yankees currently stand at 9-7 this season, sitting just above the Royals, who are 8-9 and struggling with a below-average season thus far. In their previous game, the Yankees secured a narrow victory over the Royals, showcasing their dominance on the mound and at the plate.

The Yankees are projected to start Max Fried, who has quickly established himself as one of the elite pitchers in MLB, ranking 4th in the advanced-stat Power Rankings. Fried boasts a stellar 2-0 record with an impressive 1.56 ERA this season, although his 2.76 xFIP suggests he might experience some regression. With strong projections indicating he will pitch around 6.2 innings while allowing only 2.1 earned runs, the Yankees should feel confident. His ability to generate ground balls (52% GB rate) could neutralize a Royals lineup that ranks last in home runs this season.

In contrast, Kansas City's Michael Wacha will take the mound with a 0-2 record and a 4.20 ERA, marking him as merely an average pitcher. The projections indicate he will pitch 5.1 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs, which could be problematic against a Yankees offense ranking 1st in MLB. This powerful lineup has hit 32 home runs already, making Wacha’s flyball tendencies a potential liability.

While the Yankees’ bullpen sits at 14th in MLB Power Rankings, Kansas City’s bullpen struggles at 27th. With the Yankees favored heavily at -195 and an implied team total of 4.90 runs, they appear primed to add to their win total against a struggling Royals team.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Out of all SPs, Michael Wacha's fastball spin rate of 2175 rpm is in the 13th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

New York's 2nd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Michael Massey, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Kansas City Royals bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Max Fried is an extreme groundball pitcher (52.5% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #4 HR venue in the league — today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Ben Rice has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, improving his 15.6% rate last year to 27.3% this season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Anthony Volpe hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 6th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 80 of their last 143 games (+15.60 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 28 games (+15.40 Units / 50% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 3.75, New York Yankees 4.89

• Date: April 15, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Wacha - Royals
  • Max Fried - Yankees

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