Kansas City Royals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction – 3/31/2025

Kansas City Royals vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Kansas City Royals at American Family Field on March 31, 2025, for the first game of their interleague series. Both teams are struggling early this season, with the Brewers sitting at 0-3 and the Royals at 1-2. The Brewers are coming off a rough loss, having been defeated by the score of 12-3 in their last outing on March 30, while the Royals fell 6-2.

Elvin Rodriguez is projected to take the mound for Milwaukee. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been impressive, ranking as the 416th best starting pitcher in MLB, a clear indicator of his struggles. In his last start, Rodriguez allowed 6 earned runs over just 4 innings, and his projections indicate he could struggle again, averaging only 4.0 innings pitched with 3.4 strikeouts. The Brewers' bullpen ranks 12th, which is average, but they may need to step up early if Rodriguez falters.

On the other side, Kansas City will send Kris Bubic to the mound. While he is considered a below-average pitcher, he did have a strong performance in his last outing, going 6 innings without allowing a run. Bubic's projections suggest he will allow 2.2 earned runs and strike out 4.5 batters, which may not be sufficient to hold back the Brewers’ offense. Milwaukee ranks 10th in overall offensive talent this season, bolstered by a strong batting average of .273.

As both teams look to find their footing, this matchup presents an opportunity for Milwaukee to capitalize on their offensive strengths against a struggling pitcher. Given the close odds and the Brewers' potential to turn things around, this could be a game to watch closely. The game total sits at an average of 8.5 runs, indicating a competitive clash between two teams eager to notch their first series win.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Milwaukee's #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Michael Massey, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City's 89.5-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is one of the best in the league: #4 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Elvin Rodriguez will "start" for Milwaukee Brewers in today's game but will fill the role of an opener and may not remain in the game more than a couple framess.

• Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.

Vinny Capra's 0% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power) grades out in the 0th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jackson Chourio hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 59 games (+6.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 100 games (+14.45 Units / 13% ROI)
• Michael Massey has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+5.65 Units / 69% ROI)

• Date: March 31, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kris Bubic - Royals
  • Elvin Rodriguez - Brewers

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