Kansas City Royals vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick – 4/1/2025

Kansas City Royals vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers will face off against the Kansas City Royals on April 1, 2025, at American Family Field in what marks the second game of their interleague series. Both teams enter this matchup with contrasting fortunes early in the season, as the Brewers struggle with a 0-4 record, while the Royals sit at a more respectable 2-2. The Brewers are looking to bounce back after a tough start, and they will rely on right-handed pitcher Chad Patrick, who has yet to start a game this season and carries a dismal ERA of 18.00 from his lone bullpen appearance.

In contrast, the Royals will send out right-hander Michael Lorenzen, who, while not particularly impressive either, has shown some stability with an average projection of 5.0 innings pitched and an expected earned run average of 2.6. The projections indicate that both pitchers may struggle to keep runs off the board, especially considering that Patrick's low strikeout rate (16.7 K%) faces a Royals lineup that is among the least strikeout-prone in MLB.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 10th in the league, boasting a solid batting average and an impressive 2nd rank in stolen bases. However, their inability to convert this underlying talent into wins has raised concerns. The Royals, ranked 14th offensively, will look to capitalize on their opportunities, especially with their best hitter recording a 1.390 OPS over the past week.

With both teams' bullpens also showcasing contrasting rankings—Milwaukee at 14th and Kansas City at 21st—the game could hinge on which team's relief corps can step up when needed. The current Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating that oddsmakers expect a competitive contest, with both teams having an implied total of 4.25 runs. As the Brewers seek their first win of the season, they will need to find a way to turn their offensive potential into results against the Royals.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Lorenzen has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his ERA since the start of last season; his 3.31 figure is considerably lower than his 4.93 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Since the start of last season, Bobby Witt Jr.'s 14.3% Barrel%, a reliable stat for measuring power, places him in the 93rd percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Kansas City Royals bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Among every team on the slate today, the best infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Sal Frelick's 83.3-mph average exit velocity ranks among the worst in the majors since the start of last season: 0th percentile.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 53 games (+6.45 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 29 games (+15.40 Units / 48% ROI)
• Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+9.35 Units / 20% ROI)

• Date: April 1, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Lorenzen - Royals
  • Chad Patrick - Brewers

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.