Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/26/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Overview

• Date: April 26, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Seth Lugo - Royals
  • Reese Olson - Tigers
• Run Line: Royals 1.5 -205, Tigers -1.5 180
• Money Line: Royals -105, Tigers -115
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Kansas City Royals - 49%
• Detroit Tigers - 51%

Projected Win %:

• Kansas City Royals - 43.7%
• Detroit Tigers - 56.3%

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Game Preview & Prediction

On April 26, 2024, the Detroit Tigers will face off against the Kansas City Royals at Comerica Park. This American League Central matchup promises an exciting game between two teams with impressive records this season.

The Tigers, with a current record of 14-11, are having a good season. They will be playing as the home team, looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage. On the other side, the Royals boast a stellar record of 16-10, making this season a great one for them.

Reese Olson is projected to start on the mound for the Tigers. As a right-handed pitcher, Olson has started four games this year. Although his win/loss record stands at 0-3, his ERA of 3.80 is quite good. However, his peripheral indicator, the 4.43 xFIP, suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could potentially perform worse going forward.

Seth Lugo is expected to take the mound for the Royals. Lugo, also a right-handed pitcher, has started five games this season. With a win/loss record of 3-1 and an impressive ERA of 2.03, Lugo has been a standout performer. However, his 4.79 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate and could regress in future performances.

In terms of offense, the Tigers rank 26th in MLB, indicating a below-average performance this season. Their team batting average and home run rankings also sit at 27th, while their stolen bases rank 28th. In contrast, the Royals have an average offense, ranking 16th overall. Their team batting average stands at 19th, while their home run ranking is 26th. However, the Royals excel in stolen bases, ranking 4th in MLB.

Based on the current odds, the Tigers are favored to win with a moneyline of -120 and an implied win probability of 52%. The Royals, with a moneyline of +100, have an implied win probability of 48%. This suggests that the game is expected to be closely contested.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Seth Lugo's 91.6-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.2-mph drop off from last year's 92.8-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Salvador Perez (the Royals's expected catcher today) is considered to be a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Reese Olson has a mean projection of 2.24 earned runs in this game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games (+10.65 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+13.10 Units / 77% ROI)
• Spencer Torkelson has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+5.65 Units / 34% ROI)

Royals vs Tigers Prediction: Royals 4.11 - Tigers 4.44

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.