Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 4/13/2025

Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals prepare for their matchup on April 13, 2025, both teams come in with differing trajectories. The Guardians currently hold a record of 8-6, showcasing a solid start to the season, while the Royals sit at 7-8, struggling to find consistency. After their recent game, where the Guardians secured a 6-3 victory over the Royals, they look to build momentum against a rival that has shown weaknesses.

On the mound, the Guardians are projected to start Ben Lively, who has had an up-and-down season thus far, with an ERA of 4.40. Lively's last outing was encouraging as he pitched 5 innings with no earned runs, but his overall performance has been less than stellar, ranking him as the 270th best starting pitcher in MLB. He faces a Royals lineup that has struggled, ranking 28th in overall offense and dead last in home runs this season.

On the opposing side, Cole Ragans takes the hill for Kansas City. Ragans has emerged as a standout, ranking 10th in MLB with an impressive ERA of 2.81. His last start was particularly dominant, going 6 innings with only 1 earned run and 11 strikeouts. With a projected 5.9 innings pitched today and an expected 1.9 earned runs allowed, Ragans has the potential to stifle the Guardians' offense, which ranks 21st in batting average but has shown power with 18 home runs this season.

Despite the Guardians' recent win, the projections suggest a low-scoring affair, with the Game Total set at 7.5 runs. With Lively's high flyball rate against a Royals team lacking power, he may find some success, but the Royals will need Ragans to continue his elite form to keep them competitive. As both teams aim to capitalize on this series, the stakes are high for both sides to turn their seasons around.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Out of all starting pitchers, Cole Ragans's fastball spin rate of 2521 rpm is in the 98th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Maikel Garcia has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.9-mph average to last season's 90.4-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Hunter Renfroe pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.9% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Ben Lively is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #21 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Typically, bats like Jose Ramirez who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Cole Ragans.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Austin Hedges, the Guardians's expected catcher in today's matchup, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 88 games at home (+2.82 Units / 3% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 93 of their last 169 games (+12.90 Units / 7% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 away games (+13.55 Units / 63% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.11, Cleveland Guardians 3.28

• Date: April 13, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Ragans - Royals
  • Ben Lively - Guardians

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