Houston Astros VS Texas Rangers Betting Pick & Preview – 4/5/2024

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Overview

• Date: April 5, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Brown - Astros
  • Cody Bradford - Rangers
• Run Line: Astros -1.5 (+114), Rangers +1.5 (-135)
• Money Line: Astros -135, Rangers +114
• Total (Over/Under): 9.5

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Houston Astros - 57.45%
• Texas Rangers - 46.73%

Projected Win %:

• Houston Astros - 53.92%
• Texas Rangers - 46.08%

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Game Preview & Prediction

On April 5, 2024, the Texas Rangers will face off against the Houston Astros in an American League West matchup at Globe Life Field. The Rangers, with a record of 4-2, are having a great season so far, while the Astros, with a record of 2-5, are struggling.

The Rangers will be the home team for this game, and they are projected to start left-handed pitcher Cody Bradford. Despite being ranked as the #201 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Bradford has shown inconsistency, with an average of 4.9 innings pitched, 2.7 earned runs allowed, 3.6 strikeouts, and 5.1 hits allowed per game.

On the other hand, the Astros will send right-handed pitcher Hunter Brown to the mound. Brown is ranked as the #56 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our Power Rankings. He has an average of 5.6 innings pitched, 2.5 earned runs allowed, 5.6 strikeouts, and 5.0 hits allowed per game.

The Rangers have a strong offense, ranking as the #4 best in MLB this season. They excel in team batting average, ranking #2, and team home runs, ranking #5. However, their stolen base ranking is low, coming in at #25. Meanwhile, the Astros have an average offense, ranking #19 overall. They perform well in team batting average, ranking #14, and team home runs, ranking #9. Their stolen base ranking is also average, at #12.

The Rangers' best hitter this season has been Corey Seager, who has been on fire over the last 7 games. He has recorded 7 hits, 4 runs, and 1 home run, with a batting average of .412 and an OPS of 1.062. The Astros' best hitter over the last 7 games has been Jose Altuve, who has recorded 9 hits, 7 runs, and 3 home runs, with a batting average of .375 and an OPS of 1.319.

With the Rangers having a stronger overall record and a more potent offense, they have the edge in this matchup. However, with baseball being a game of surprises, anything can happen on the field.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Jose Abreu is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Yainer Diaz (the Astros's expected catcher in today's matchup) profiles as a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Cody Bradford is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #4 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Texas Rangers bullpen ranks as the 10th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 92 of their last 166 games (+25.78 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 85 away games (+22.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• Corey Seager has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 19 games at home (+6.05 Units / 27% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros 4.85 vs Texas Rangers 4.21

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.