Houston Astros vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick – 4/15/2025

Houston Astros vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

On April 15, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Houston Astros at Busch Stadium in an intriguing interleague matchup. The Cardinals enter this game with an 8-8 record, reflecting an average start to the season, while the Astros are struggling with a 7-9 mark, indicating a tough stretch. In their previous contest, the Astros were beaten by the Cardinals, raising questions about their offensive prowess.

St. Louis is projected to start Erick Fedde, who has had an average season thus far with a 4.20 ERA and a Power Ranking placing him as the 117th best starting pitcher in MLB. Fedde projects to pitch just under six innings, allowing about 2.5 earned runs while striking out fewer than five batters on average. His ability to limit damage will be crucial, especially considering the Cardinals boast the 4th best offense in MLB this season, highlighted by their 2nd best team batting average.

In contrast, Houston's Hunter Brown, ranked 26th in MLB, has been exceptional with a 2.00 ERA. Despite a solid performance, Brown's projections show he might also be due for some regression. The Astros' offense, currently ranked 23rd, has been lackluster this season, which could magnify the pitching duel between these two right-handers.

The Cardinals hold a moneyline of +110, suggesting a competitive matchup against the Astros’ -130 line. With both teams looking to find their footing, the Cardinals' stronger offense and the more favorable matchup against Fedde may tip the scales in their favor. As the game approaches, expect another intense contest, particularly with both teams needing a win to turn their seasons around.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Compared to the average starter, Hunter Brown has been granted more leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, recording an extra 5.0 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

There has been a decrease in Jose Altuve's average exit velocity this year, from 86.5 mph last year to 82.7 mph now

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Houston Astros batters as a group rank 27th- in baseball for power since the start of last season when judging by their 91.3-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Erick Fedde's sinker utilization has jumped by 5% from last season to this one (30.8% to 35.8%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Extreme flyball hitters like Nolan Gorman tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.85 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 games (+15.20 Units / 19% ROI)

Houston Astros vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Houston Astros 4.2, St. Louis Cardinals 3.61

• Date: April 15, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Brown - Astros
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals

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