Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Pick – 4/8/2025

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

On April 8, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Houston Astros at T-Mobile Park in what is the second game of their series. Both teams are struggling early in the season, with the Mariners sitting at 4-7 and the Astros at 4-6.

This game will feature a compelling pitching duel between Seattle's Luis Castillo and Houston's Framber Valdez. Castillo, projected to start for the Mariners, has a solid ERA of 3.00 this season, but his 4.55 xFIP suggests he may not maintain this level. He’s faced a high-strikeout Astros lineup, which could play to his advantage given his low strikeout rate of 18.4%. Meanwhile, Valdez, ranked 15th among MLB starters, boasts a respectable ERA of 3.75 but struggles with walks, which could allow the patient Mariners offense to capitalize.

The projections indicate a tight contest, yet the Mariners’ implied total of 3.46 runs feels low given their potential for drawing walks against Valdez. With Seattle's best hitter showing recent form with a .429 batting average over the last week, the Mariners might just find a way to turn their season around. As both teams aim for a crucial win to build momentum, this matchup promises to be a closely contested affair that could go either way.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Considering that groundball batters have a significant edge over flyball pitchers, Framber Valdez and his 58.3% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough position in today's game facing 0 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Yainer Diaz has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (75% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (46.2% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Luis Castillo will have the handedness advantage against 8 opposing bats today... and will be extra-advantaged due to his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

J.P. Crawford has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.3-mph dropping to 79.5-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Seattle Mariners have been the 8th-unluckiest offense in baseball since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 55 games (+11.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 81 of their last 141 games (+17.85 Units / 11% ROI)
• Ryan Bliss has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.60 Units / 28% ROI)

• Date: April 8, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Framber Valdez - Astros
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners

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