Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/28/2024

• Date: August 28, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros
  • Taijuan Walker - Phillies

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

On August 28, 2024, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Houston Astros at Citizens Bank Park in an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Phillies are enjoying a strong season with a record of 78-54, currently positioned well within the playoff picture. In contrast, the Astros sit at 70-62, presenting an above-average performance but not quite as commanding as their previous seasons. Notably, the Phillies enter this game after a recent victory, beating the Astros 5-0 on Tuesday.

The matchup features Taijuan Walker for the Phillies, who has had a challenging year with a Win/Loss record of 3-5 and an ERA of 6.26, placing him in the lower echelon of starting pitchers according to advanced metrics. However, projections suggest he may just be a bit unlucky this season, showing potential for better performance ahead. Walker’s ability to limit walks could be crucial against an Astros lineup that tends to be patient at the plate.

Spencer Arrighetti takes the mound for the Astros, bringing with him a record of 6-11 and a below-average ERA of 4.94. He struggles with control, projected to allow 2.0 walks on average, which could be detrimental against a Phillies offense ranked 7th in MLB. They have also been effective with their power numbers, ranking 6th in home runs, which could exploit Arrighetti’s high-flyball tendencies.

With Game Total set at 9.5 runs, the betting markets are anticipating a close encounter, reflected in the equal moneyline of -110 for both teams. Given the offensive firepower of the Phillies and the potential vulnerabilities in Arrighetti’s game, they could well exceed their projected total of 4.75 runs, offering a promising scenario for bettors looking to capitalize on this matchup.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Spencer Arrighetti was firing on all cylinders in his previous start and allowed 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Jon Singleton has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 97.1-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 89.1-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Recording 14.9 outs per GS this year on average, Taijuan Walker checks in at the 22nd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Bryce Harper has been very fortunate when it comes to his home runs this year; his 30.8 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a fair amount higher than his 21.7 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The 3rd-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 58 games at home (+14.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 109 games (+15.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• Spencer Arrighetti has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+9.15 Units / 40% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 5.56 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.49

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