Houston Astros vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction – 5/7/2025

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Houston Astros on May 7, 2025, at American Family Field for the third game of their interleague series. The Brewers currently hold a record of 19-18, while the Astros are slightly behind at 17-18. Both teams are experiencing average seasons, struggling to find their rhythm as they approach the quarter mark of the year.

In their last game, the Brewers took a 4-3 win over the Astros. They will send Quinn Priester to the mound today, who has had a rocky start to his season, boasting a 1-0 record with a troubling 5.79 ERA. The projections suggest he may be due for some positive regression, as his 5.08 xFIP indicates that luck hasn’t been on his side. However, he will need to improve his command, as he projects to allow 1.5 walks and 5.1 hits today, both of which are concerning.

On the other side, Framber Valdez takes the hill for Houston, coming off a less-than-stellar 1-4 record this season, with a 4.39 ERA. His xFIP of 3.62 suggests he has also been unlucky, but his ability to pitch 6.0 innings while allowing only 2.2 earned runs on average shows he has the potential to keep games competitive.

While both offenses have struggled this season, the Brewers rank 21st in MLB, and the Astros stand at 20th. However, the Brewers do excel in speed, ranking 2nd in stolen bases. With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, this matchup seems poised for a tight contest. Betting markets are leaning slightly towards the Astros with a moneyline of -130, but with Priester’s potential for an upturn and the home-field advantage, the Brewers could surprise and steal a win.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez has a large reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 7 opposite-handed hitters in this game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

In the last week's worth of games, Jose Altuve's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.7% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Houston's 88.4-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in Major League Baseball: #28 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Quinn Priester performed well in his previous outing and conceded 1 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

There has been a decrease in Joey Ortiz's average exit velocity this season, from 87.8 mph last year to 82.7 mph now

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Daz Cameron hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 31 games (+8.15 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.45 Units / 49% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Houston Astros 3.71, Milwaukee Brewers 3.84

• Date: May 7, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Framber Valdez - Astros
  • Quinn Priester - Brewers

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