Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Prediction – 4/26/2025

Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals host the Houston Astros on April 26, 2025, the stakes remain high despite neither team firmly contending for a playoff spot this season. The Royals, sitting at 13-14, are struggling with a ranking of 29th in offense, while the Astros, at 13-12, are performing above average with a 23rd-ranked offense. In their last matchup, the Royals defeated the Astros, adding pressure on Houston to rebound in this series.

Michael Wacha is slated to take the mound for the Royals, boasting an advanced-stat ranking of 80th among MLB's starting pitchers. While Wacha has an above-average ERA of 4.15, his win/loss record stands at 0-3, hinting at some misfortune this season. The projections suggest he will pitch about 5.5 innings today, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs, but his anticipated 5.4 hits against raise some concerns.

Framber Valdez takes the hill for the Astros, coming in as the 14th-ranked starting pitcher and considered elite. Though his ERA sits at 4.50, his advanced metrics indicate he, too, has faced some tough luck this year. Valdez projects to pitch 6.0 innings with a solid average of 2.6 earned runs allowed, but like Wacha, he is expected to yield a troubling 5.9 hits.

Given that Valdez is a high-groundball pitcher, this matchup may favor Kansas City’s lack of power, as the Royals have only hit 12 home runs this season, the fewest in MLB. The current game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating expected low-scoring action, which aligns with the Royals' trends. Betting markets reflect a close game, with the Royals listed at +115, suggesting the potential for an upset if their offense can come alive against a capable Astros pitcher.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez has a large reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 8 opposite-handed bats today.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Isaac Paredes's average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 86.7-mph seasonal average has fallen to 79.8-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Houston Astros have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha's 92.4-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.2-mph decline from last season's 93.6-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme flyball batters like Salvador Perez generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Framber Valdez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals' bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst among all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.85 Units / 51% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.55 Units / 42% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Houston Astros 4.65, Kansas City Royals 4.06

• Date: April 26, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Framber Valdez - Astros
  • Michael Wacha - Royals

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