Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox Pick – 5/2/2025

Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

On May 2, 2025, the Chicago White Sox will host the Houston Astros at Guaranteed Rate Field in what marks the beginning of a new series between these two teams. Currently, the White Sox are struggling significantly this season, holding a record of 8-23, while the Astros sit above .500 at 16-14. The White Sox's did manage to win their last game, but their offense ranks an abysmal 29th in the league according to advanced statistics.

The White Sox will send Jonathan Cannon to the mound, who is projected to pitch 5.8 innings with an average allowance of 2.8 earned runs. While Cannon's ERA of 4.50 is considered average, his 5.08 xFIP indicates a likely decline in performance. Facing him will be the Astros' Framber Valdez, who boasts an impressive rank of 18th among starting pitchers. Valdez is set to pitch 6.3 innings, with projections suggesting he will allow only 2.2 earned runs, showcasing his solid form.

Despite the White Sox's weak offensive output, the matchup against Valdez may present an opportunity. With both teams struggling to produce power—each sitting towards the bottom of the league in home runs—Cannon's tendency to induce fly balls could be mitigated against an Astros lineup that has hit just 25 homers this season, ranking 6th least in the league.

As for betting implications, the White Sox are listed as significant underdogs with a moneyline of +200, reflecting their current struggles and the projections favoring the Astros. However, baseball can be unpredictable, especially in matchups where one side has a significant advantage on the mound.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez is an extreme groundball pitcher (57.9% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #9 HR venue among all major league parks — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Christian Walker has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.2-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 91.3-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Houston's 88.5-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in MLB: #27 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Jonathan Cannon's sinker percentage has decreased by 6.2% from last year to this one (27.2% to 21%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Extreme flyball bats like Miguel Vargas tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Framber Valdez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Bobby Dalbec ranks in the 10th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.90 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games (+9.45 Units / 29% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.80 Units / 30% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Houston Astros 4.89, Chicago White Sox 3.61

• Date: May 2, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Framber Valdez - Astros
  • Jonathan Cannon - White Sox

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.