Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/23/2024

Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs Overview

• Date: April 23, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • J.P. France - Astros
  • Jordan Wicks - Cubs
• Run Line: Astros -1.5 135, Cubs 1.5 -155
• Money Line: Astros -110, Cubs -110
• Total (Over/Under): 10

Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Houston Astros - 50%
• Chicago Cubs - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Houston Astros - 51.05%
• Chicago Cubs - 48.95%

Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs Game Preview & Prediction

In an exciting interleague matchup, the Chicago Cubs will host the Houston Astros at Wrigley Field on April 23, 2024. The Cubs, with a season record of 13-9, are having a great season, while the struggling Astros hold a disappointing record of 7-16.

On the mound, the Cubs are projected to start left-handed pitcher Jordan Wicks, who has a 0-2 record this season with an ERA of 5.29. Although his numbers may not be impressive, his peripheral stats suggest that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. On the other side, the Astros are projected to start right-handed pitcher J.P. France, who has struggled with a 0-2 record and an ERA of 7.08. However, his peripheral stats also indicate that he has been unlucky and could see improvement.

The Cubs' offense has been impressive this season, ranking 8th best in MLB. Their team batting average ranks 9th and their team stolen bases rank 6th. Meanwhile, the Astros have one of the best offenses in the league, ranking 5th overall. Their team batting average is 14th, and their team home runs rank 9th.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Cubs are ranked 22nd according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Astros sit at 15th. This could potentially give the Astros a slight advantage late in the game.

The Cubs have been led by their best hitter, Cody Bellinger, who has been on fire over the last 7 games. In this span, he has recorded 7 hits, 4 runs, 5 RBIs, and 2 home runs, with a batting average of .350 and an impressive 1.159 OPS. The Astros' standout hitter over the past week has been Kyle Tucker, who has recorded 6 hits, 4 RBIs, and 1 home run, along with 2 stolen bases. He boasts a batting average of .333 and a 1.066 OPS.

Given the projected starting pitchers, the Cubs' offense may have the advantage against J.P. France, who has struggled this season. However, Jordan Wicks, despite being an average pitcher according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, will face an Astros offense that ranks among the best in the league.

According to current odds, the Cubs have an implied win probability of 48%, while the Astros have a 52% chance of winning. This suggests that the game could be a close one. The Game Total is set at 10.0 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring affair.

As the Cubs and Astros take the field, both teams will look to capitalize on their strengths and exploit their opponents' weaknesses. It will be an intriguing matchup between a team having a great season and a team looking to turn things around. Stay tuned for an exciting evening of baseball at Wrigley Field.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Jose Abreu has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Houston Astros projected offense projects as the strongest on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Jordan Wicks has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an -10.9 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cody Bellinger has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+7.20 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 53 away games (+17.35 Units / 25% ROI)
• Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 7 games (+2.65 Units / 38% ROI)

Astros vs Cubs Prediction: Astros 5.89 - Cubs 5.47

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.