Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners Prediction For 7/19/2024

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: July 19, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Brown - Astros
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners host the Houston Astros on July 19, 2024, at T-Mobile Park, we see a matchup of two American League West rivals who have both been performing above average this season. The Mariners, with a 52-46 record, will look to leverage their home field advantage against the Astros, who are sitting at 50-46. Both teams are locked in a tight race, making this series opener crucial for both squads.

Luis Castillo will take the mound for the Mariners, bringing his solid 3.53 ERA and an 8-9 record over 20 starts. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Castillo is ranked as the 42nd best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating his capability to deliver strong performances. Castillo is projected to pitch 6.1 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs while striking out 6.3 batters on average. However, his projections also indicate a struggle with control, allowing 5.4 hits and 1.5 walks, which could be a concern against a potent Houston lineup.

Speaking of the Astros, they will counter with Hunter Brown, who holds a 7-6 record and a 4.39 ERA over 18 starts. Ranked as the 47th best starting pitcher, Brown has been somewhat unlucky this season, as his 3.69 xFIP suggests he may perform better moving forward. Projections have him pitching 5.4 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, and striking out 6.5 batters, though he too struggles with control, allowing 4.6 hits and 1.9 walks on average.

Offensively, the Astros hold a clear advantage, ranking 9th in overall offensive performance and 1st in team batting average, while the Mariners languish at 27th and 30th in these categories respectively. Houston's power is also evident as they rank 9th in home runs, whereas Seattle sits at 10th, reflecting a more balanced attack in terms of power.

Bullpen performance could also be a deciding factor. The Astros are ranked 10th in bullpen effectiveness, while the Mariners are a distant 26th. Given that the Mariners' offensive struggles might put additional pressure on their bullpen, this could play into Houston's favor late in the game.

Betting markets see this as a tight clash, with the Mariners holding a slight edge at -130, translating to an implied win probability of 54%. This close margin suggests a competitive game, but with Houston's strong offensive and bullpen capabilities, they could very well tip the scales in their favor.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Hunter Brown (48.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 4 GB hitters in Seattle's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jon Singleton stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros' bullpen projects as the 10th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Luis Castillo will have the handedness advantage against 6 opposing bats in this game... and will be extra-advantaged due to his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Cal Raleigh is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Houston (#3-best of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Mitch Garver pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+12.60 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 29 games (+15.95 Units / 41% ROI)
• Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 3.85 vs Seattle Mariners 3.99

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