In Major League Baseball, the league’s top home run hitters start the season with zero home runs, and will look to finish the season with the most home runs in baseball. Here, we look at the 2024 MLB home run king odds and make our prediction on who is going to finish this season at the top of the home run charts.
Stats to Look For When Betting on MLB Home Run King
Which stats are most important when betting on this market? Let’s go one-by-one:
Pull% – Pull% is the percentage of batted balls hit to the pull side as defined by Baseball Info Solutions, which tracks these by hand. There were 2,304 home runs hit in 2020. Of those home runs, 1,386 were hit to the pull side per FanGraphs. That is 60.2% of the home runs that were hit.
In 2019, there were 3,954 homers hit to the pull side out of 6,776 total home runs. That accounted for 58.4% of the home runs.
FB% – You have to hit the ball in the air more often than not to hit a home run. Line drive home runs are possible. Ground ball home runs are not.
K% – A strikeout is not a ball in play. Guys that hit home runs will strike out because they are often patient hitters or guys that have big, long swings that generate power, but I try not to focus on guys that are going to fritter away a high percentage of plate appearances.
BB% – Similarly, a walk is not a ball in play. When you add BB% and K% together, those could be a lot of plate appearances without the chance to hit a home run.
HR/FB% – When you hit fly balls, do you generate a lot of home run power? Was there an outlier from the previous season? To that end, did you hit a high percentage of your fly balls out of the ballpark? Guys that hit a lot of ground balls can often carry really high HR/FB%, but not have enough fly balls to support a high home run total.
Barrel% – A Barreled ball has an expected batting average of .500 and an expected SLG of 1.500. The more barrels, the better.
Fly Ball Distance – Give me a guy that is regularly able to hit the ball a long way. Some fly ball guys also hit a lot of pop ups, which are just wasted plate appearances. I’d rather not focus on those.
Hard Hit% – Much like Barrels/PA or Barrel%, you want guys that make a lot of hard, violent contact. Hard Hit% is a measure of the percentage of batted balls hit at least 95 mph.
Park Factor by Handedness – Home games make up 50% of the schedule. Hitters that have good offensive environments are more likely to have success than those that do not. This one is last for a reason because elite power hitters can hit for power anywhere, but I do want to consider the home ballpark in the equation.
Home Run Leader Odds
| Team |
|
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ATL
|
-200 | -200 | |||
|
NYY
|
+400 | +400 | |||
|
LAD
|
+500 | +500 | |||
|
HOU
|
+1200 | +1200 | |||
|
TEX
|
+1800 | +1800 | |||
|
LAA
|
+2000 | +2000 | |||
|
CIN
|
+2200 | +2200 | |||
|
NYM
|
+2200 | +2200 | |||
|
MIN
|
+2500 | +2500 | |||
|
PHI
|
+2800 | +2800 | |||
|
SEA
|
+2800 | +2800 | |||
|
BOS
|
+3300 | +3300 | |||
|
KC
|
+4000 | +4000 | |||
|
TOR
|
+4000 | +4000 | |||
|
COL
|
+5000 | +5000 | |||
|
BAL
|
+6000 | +6000 | |||
|
OAK
|
+7500 | +7500 | |||
|
STL
|
+7500 | +7500 | |||
|
CHC
|
+10000 | +10000 | |||
|
CHW
|
+10000 | +10000 |
Home Run Leader Pick & Prediction
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Aaron Judge had one of the most prolific home run-hitting seasons two seasons ago, hitting over 60 home runs. But he struggled to follow up on that, hitting 37 home runs in 2023. This year, he is pacing to be the MLB home run king by a substantial margin and is a clear favorite to do so at this point in the season. He isn’t completely out of the woods yet, with Shohei Ohtani still in the mix, but Judge is the prohibitive favorite to finish at the top of the home run charts this year.
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
Also hoping to lead MLB in home runs this season is Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Ohtani is a hitter who can hit for both average and power, as we have seen throughout his career. He is second to Judge in home runs at this point in the year. It would take a huge finish to the regular season for Ohtani to move ahead of Judge, but if anyone can catch up to one of the most prolific home run hitters of our generation, it’s the Dodgers slugger.
Other HR King Contenders
By this point in the season, there aren’t any other serious contenders to claim MLB home run king honors. Hitters like Anthony Santander of the Baltimore Orioles and Juan Soto of the New York Yankees have had huge years from a power standpoint. But even they can’t compare to what Judge and Ohtani have done at the plate in terms of pure power.
Home Run King Prediction: Aaron Judge
Based on what we have seen throughout the 2024 season, we will go with Aaron Judge to hit the most home runs in baseball. Judge plays in a hitter-friendly ballpark in New York, which has helped him to keep his power numbers up. At this point, there just isn’t enough time for anyone to catch up with Judge, who should claim home run king honors for the second time in his last three seasons.
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